October Results 2019

📅 October 🚀NAPS Results

🐴 28 Selections 

💰 38.525 Returns

📈 37.58% ROI PROFIT

Thursday October 31st 11.30am 🚀 NAP is RAJMAN 5.10pm Kempton @ 11/1 Bet365

Result - 8th

Tom Clover's Rajman was a reasonably consistent 7f horse until March when he weakened rapidly over a mile. He had a 4 month break before returning back at Epsom but pulled very hard and blew any chance he had in first time tongue tie and looked not to have handled the track. 

Another 2 month break until last run where he was outpaced over 6f. Dropped to a mark of 58 today, which was his last winning mark and back at 7f which should see him on back on the premises. Clover is in fair form, having 3 seconds from his last 5 runners. 

Wednesday October 30th 10.53am 🚀 NAP is EL MISK 7.40pm Kempton @ 11/10 Bet365

Result - WON💣 

John Gosden is having a great year with his all weather runners 68/183 and a strike rate of 37.2% (67.2% made frame) I.V 1.42 A/E 1.05 with a profit even to SP.

El Misk already has two wins and three seconds to his name from just six runs (sweated badly and appeared unhappy on firm ground on his only poor run).

Up to a mark of 99 now but this looks within his grasp and should be able to add another C&D win to his CV whilst landing his third win on artificial surfaces.

Tuesday October 29th 10.08am 🚀 NAP is KEITH 7.15 Southwell @ 9/4 Ladbrokes, Coral

Result - 3rd

Rod Millman’s gelding Keith had a 3 month break and wind surgery from June and needed his run back when reappearing at Chepstow in September. He was badly in at the weights two runs ago but ran well coming third. Unlucky last time out, Keith was hampered at a crucial moment. This Rip Van Winkle gelding likes the surface and the extra 2f should suit in what looks a poor race. Trainers horses normally need a few runs to get going so he should be spot on here today.  

 

Monday October 28th 11.45am 🚀 NAP is AURORA THUNDER 1.00 Ayr @ 15/8 William Hill, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Betfair, Paddy Power

Result - WON💣 

Lucinda Russell’s mare Aurora Thunder was placed in two of her NHF races from 6 starts at the beginning of her career. She then came 5th in her maiden hurdle at Ayr however, this was over good ground, which wasn’t ideal for her. Today she has the soft ground that she should hopefully thrive on. She came a decent 3rd last time out in her Novices’ Hurdle at Kelso, and the 4th placed horse has come out and won well (by 4.5 lengths on Saturday) so that form looks good and she looks the one to beat today. 

Blair Campbell takes the ride.

Saturday October 26th 11.45am 🚀 NAP is UNIVERSAL EFFECT 6.30 Chelmsford @ 8/1 Ladbrokes/888Sport 15/2 WHills

Result - 5th

Three year old filly who was unraced at two but ran a stormer on only her second start behind Kirstenbosch (hacked up again since and now rated 98). Struggled on soft ground twice and in hot company but been very effective on all weather and won over C&D off 68 in August.

Changed hands for £38k since and but ran a decent 3rd when very wide in the straight at wolves over 8.5f going down by just 1.5 lengths.

Back to the scene of her victory and in a race with little pace she looks very dangerously plotted from stall 1 and can give the shorter priced rivals plenty to worry about if settling early.

Friday October 25th 11.30am 🚀 NAP is CARAVAN OF HOPE 4.10 Doncaster @ 85/40 William Hill

Result -  WON 💣 SP 9/4!!

We napped Caravan of Hope last time out and hopefully he will do the business again for us today. The second from that race (Pianissimo) won last night to frank the form. 

The only concern we had last time out, was that the 1m4f he was running over wasn’t far enough - that won’t be a worry today as we’ve got 1m6f at a stamina track in Doncaster. 

Everything looks perfect and as he gets a 7lb weight for age allowance he must have a great chance off that mark. 

He’s also by Nathaniel who is known for stamina so he should stay on well over this trip. 

Thursday October 24th 8.30am 🚀 NAP is SWINLEY 7.45 Wolverhampton @ 7/4 Bet365

Result -  WON 💣

€50,000 yearling  by Dragon Pulse out of an Invincible Spirit mare. Eight race maiden but running with credit and very unlucky last two starts. Three runs ago tried with headgear (b1) but blasted off way too quick and then trapped wide two starts back at Kempton and veered even further wide on turn but ran incredibly well considering. LTO looked to have bagged the prize only to be nailed in the last few strides having traded 1/3 in running. 

Sets the standard on form and clearly the one to beat off the same mark (71) and due to go up 4lb to 75 for the latest effort from Saturday. Port Winston and Abbaleka look the main dangers but both will need to put in improved performances on what they have shown so far at the track to beat the selection.

Trainer Richard Hughes has a decent record in all weather nurseries with a 19% strike rate and 20% ROI to SP and he should be able to add to that respectable tally tonight.

Wednesday October 23nd 11.30am 🚀 NAP is SPOT LITE 4.40 Kempton @ 7/2 Betfair/Paddy Power/Betvictor

Result - 8th

Rod Millman’s gelding Spot Lite looks a decent bet here at the prices. He has decent course form, having ran well here back in Aug 2018, coming 4th off a mark of 63. He ran a stormer, led and got collared late on. 

Spot Lite also ran well in October 2018, off a mark of 60. Drawn stall 9 of 9, he ran really well and came a solid third. 

The horse has not run badly this season, having had 2 seconds and a third in this last 4 runs. 

His last run at Bath was poor but that can be excused by the fact he was drawn 15 of 15 and race very wide.

The previous course form off marks of 63 and 60 puts him right in the mix here off a low mark of 52.

He finally has a good draw and there are no excuses today. 

 

Tuesday October 22nd 7.41am 🚀 NAP is MADE FOR ALL 2.15 Yarmouth @ 13/8 PaddyPower/Betfair/WHills/Skybet

Result - 5th

Expensive Arqana breeze up purchase who impressed on debut from a bad draw. Displayed a good attitude and lost nothing in defeat behind the two market principles who both had much better draws and she was trapped wide throughout down the middle. Those three drew clear and with Karl Burke's often improving plenty for a run she can land this Class 4 Novice race.

Trainer had steady start to season but now flying with 9 winners and 5 seconds in the past fortnight and 5 of the last 11 runners have won.

Jockey Harrison Shaw is having a great year on the turf with 28/184 (15.2% win and 35.3% place A/E 1.26) and 33 winners in 2019 in total already.

Second fav Lady Light cost a staggering €850,000 but trainer just 4% strike rate with turf debutants so happy to take on whilst Ikebana and Vintage Poly have chances they may need to improve on the form they have shown to beat the nap.

Monday October 21st 11.56am 🚀 NAP is GLOBAL EXCEED 7.30 Southwell @ 5/1

Betfred/Bet365/Ladbrokes/Coral/888Sport and others.

Result - Unplaced

A 200,000gns Book 1 yearling but very modest form for Ed Dunlop and then Robert Cowell. Picked up for just 10,000gns by this yard and outpaced off 64 over 6f before running with credit over today's 1mile trip when looking the likely winner before running into trouble (50/1 SP but went 2/1 in running). Again got no luck at Beverley when hemmed in on the rail, looking like the unlucky horse. 

Sent off 25/1 LTO and again looked threatening up the stands side before running into traffic problems and switched to the middle of the track but again hit a wall of horses but ran on well for third

Due a change of luck and found a very weak race here and granted a trouble free path he should go well.

Course form is always important at Southwell and he has had two solid 6f runs in Class 4 & 5 (both off a mark of 70), and outpaced so off 61 and over 1 mile in Class 6 this looks ideal.

Saturday October 19th 11.10am 🚀 NAP is ALHAKMAH 7.15 Wolverhampton @ 9/2 William Hill/BetVictor/Unibet

Result 6th

Scopey No Nay Never filly who was a 420,000gns Book1 yearling. Ran a stormer on debut when rattling home late at Goodwood but just failed. The winner was later sold to USA and has been placed in Group company since. Sent off Fav for her next two starts on the back of the eye catching display but was beaten into 2nd on both occasions. However both winners are rated in the nineties now so with hindsight they are fair runs.

She then won on soft ground beating Tapisserie off levels (she won a Listed race NTO and earned a rating of 100). On handicap debut she took a keen pull over 7f on fast ground and raced keen again at Chelmsford before fading in the straight. Something may have been amiss that day as the had 111 days off before returning with a great run at Kempton from a wide draw, finishing a decent 3rd off 80, again keen over 7f. That should have her spot on and should appreciate the Tapeta more than Polytrack and looks set to run a stormer at a fair price tonight back to 6f. She has already been backed overnight but still represents fair value and granted a clear run she should go well. 

Friday October 18th 10.15am 🚀 NAP is PERFECT SWISS 5.35 Newcastle @ 6/4 Bet365

Result - WON 💣

Tim Easterly’s Swiss Spirit gelding Perfect Swiss won by 5L on his first course run at Newcastle last time out and looks set to do so again today. 

He’s up 6lb but he won easily and goes up another 6lbs from tomorrow so it looks a shrewd decision to run him this evening off this mark. 

He’s only ran on tapeta twice and they have arguably been his best two runs (1st at Newcastle and a solid 2nd at Wolverhampton back in May). 

The horse that won that day at Wolves is now rated 63 having won off a mark of 55, so that form looks strong. 

Rachel Richardson is in great from in the last 14 days, having two winners (13/2 and 8/1) and two places (12/1, 12/1) and is operating at a 33% strike rate over that time.

 

 

Thursday October 17th 11.55am 🚀 NAP is NICKOLSON 1.40 Wincanton @ 6/5 Skybet, Evens William Hill, Betvictor 

Result - WON 💣

Olly Murphy’s gelding Nickolson was a well backed 10/11 favourite on his debut win in a bumper at Ayr in February and should back that up with a win today. 

He is a €45,000 store horse from Arqana and his dam also also threw Hollywoodien (RPR 145) Carabinier (RPR 129) Jabulani (125) & Guerlina (117).

Olly Murphy non handicap hurdlers after a long break stats are good with 15/65 winning (23.08% S/R) with A/E 1.44

Richard Johnson takes the ride who has ridden 6 winners in the last 14 days. 

Wednesday October 16th 12.01pm 🚀 NAP is KHUZAAM 6.40 Kempton @ 6/4

Result - WON 💣Bet365/Skybet/WHills/Ladbrokes/BetVictor/PaddyPower

Kittens Joy colt who made fair impression on debut when 2nd but showed marked improvement over C&D when blowing away the field from a bad draw (2nd now rated 97).

He raced a bit keen on both those starts so was a surprise to see him return to the track in a Listed race in May this year over 10f at Newmarket and was well beaten. A wind op soon followed 13 days after that and didn't appear again until last month when second to Scentasia off 89 on turf.

Same mark today but with  the run under his belt and the switch back to the scene of his C&D win he looks thrown in and should take some beating if returning to that same form. 

Jim Crowley takes the ride (as he did in the C&D win, the only time they have teamed up!)

Tuesday October 15th 11.30am 🚀 NAP is TRECCO BAY 5.30 Kempton @ 11/2 Bet365

Result - 11th

David Elsworth's filly Trecco Bay produced an eye catching run on debut at this track, she was very green but finished the race staying on very well over 5f. She looked like she needed further, and is also bred for further so this step up in trip to 6f should suit. 

Elsworth's tend to be slow to hand, and therefore there should be a natural improvement from her debut. 

She has a decent draw in stall 3 and there is a chance the favourite Tambourine Girl could get stuck out wide from a draw of 12. 

 

Monday October 14th 11.02am 🚀 NAP is RED SECRET 6.25 Wolverhampton @ 11/4 PaddyPower/Bet365/Unibet/Betfair.

Result - WON SP 3/1 !! 💣

Started life in Kentucky before changing hands at Tattersalls Book2 for 80,000gns as a yearling. Unraced at two and only modest form in first three (all 10f) runs this summer. Looked in need of further in those three runs though and gained a mark of just 60. 

Caught the eye on handicap debut (upped to 11f) with a staying on 6th/14, again looking like a longer trip would suit. Gets that today (14f) and along with a 3lb drop in his mark (57), blinkers applied for the first time and a handy 7lb WFA allowance with Silvestre De Sousa on board he should be more than capable of landing this providing the headgear has no ill effect.

Saturday October 12th 10.00am 🚀 NAP is GREAT BEAR 7.00 Wolverhampton @ 7/4 Ladbrokes/Coral/Unibet

Result - 7th

A previous Nap winner for us back in May who has been running consistently since in handicaps off this mark (81). Has already shown a liking for tapeta when winning on racecourse debut last season and this 14f trip looks tailor made for him. One of three 3 year olds who get the 7lb WFA allowance and with Thomas Greatrex taking off an additional 5lb this colt is weighted to cause them all problems.

Trainer Roger Charlton's last 4 runners have had 3 wins and a 2nd (Quadrilateral 9/4F, Smokey Bear Evens, Casual Reply 16/1 (2nd) & Tavus 4/1)

 

Friday October 11th 11.35am 🚀 NAP is PATHS OF GLORY 6.00 Newcastle @ 5/4 William Hill

Result - WON 💣

This Hugo Palmer trained Paths Of Glory is a typical Mastercraftsman gelding who is late to come to hand. He was gelded at 3, but didn’t race until he was 4, and didn’t even hit the track until June this year. 

He has ran 4 good races, winning 2 and coming 2nd and 3rd in the others. He has had a bad run but that was on heavy ground at Hamilton which definitely didn’t suit so that can be ignored. Palmer has a 22% strike rate with AW runners at Newcastle and this looks a good bet today. 

Jack Mitchell takes the ride and he’s ridden 5 winners in the last 14 days. 

Thursday October 10th 11.15am 🚀 NAP is STORM ARISING 3.50 Worcester @ 6/5 Skybet, Ladbrokes, William Hill

Result -3rd

Paul Nicholls’s Yeats gelding Storm Arising was impressive two starts ago winning well at Wincanton. He made a bad mistake at the last last time out when a beaten odds on favourite but he still is open to improvement and could well go on to be a very nice horse. Paul Nicholls had two winners and a second yesterday and his record speaks for itself. Market rival Dolphin Square has a double penalty for his wins and Storm Arising can take advantage of this. 

Harry Cobden takes the ride and is operating at a 33% strike rate in the last 14 days. 

 

Wednesday October 9th 11.30am 🚀 NAP is INTUITIVE 7.10 Kempton @ 13/8 Betfair/PaddyPower/Betvictor

Result - WON 💣

James Tate’s Intuitive is 2/2 at this track and won easily last time out at Chelmsford after not having the clearest of runs. He’s got a good draw today and is progressive for decent yard.

He’s upped in trip (all 8 runs over 6f) but bred for further and runs like will stay this far too, he looks a very decent bet today. 

PJ McDonald takes the ride. 

 

Tuesday October 8th 9.15am 🚀 NAP is DR JEKYLL 7.10 Chelmsford @ 6/4 Betfair/PaddyPower

Result - 6th

David Simcock’s Scat Datty colt Dr Jekyll looks like he could be set to win for the first time today with Jamie Spencer on board. Over both his previous runs, he’s been staying on over 1m and he should improve a bundle up to 10f today. He came 6th on his debut, which when you can look back on it, was a decent run as he wouldn’t have been 100% ready and was beaten by horses who have gone on to be very successful (King of Comedy). 

 

Monday October 7th 11.04am 🚀 NAP is SHANTOU EXPRESS 4.50 Stratford @Evens

Skybet/Ladbrokes/WHills/BetVictor/BetFred.

Result - 💣 WON

A late Shantou foal (10 May) but made €17,000 at just 7 months of age before doubling in price at the store sales last summer.

Sent to Kim Bailey and made impressive debut when second to a smart Nicky Henderson filly with the third horse Shanroe landing a hat-trick since.

Has a 200 day absence to overcome but the trainer has a great record in bumpers with 22/97 (22.68%) winners since 2017 with a 22.42% ROI to SP. Also with Leroy Brown having a 7lb penalty and Full Or Roque starting to look a little exposed after 3 starts Shantou Express gets the Nap vote today with Ned Curtis taking off a valuable 3lb.

 

 

Sunday October 6th 9.16am 🚀 NAP is JAPAN 3.05 Longchamp @ 15/2 WilliamHill/PaddyPower/Betfair

Result - 4th

On the official ratings JAPAN (122) has 6lb to find with Enable (128) but after filly/WFA allowances that is down to just 3lb. 

There is a big chance however that Aidan O'Brien's rapidly improving three year old colt has improved beyond that mark having beaten Crystal Ocean on what many consider to be an inadequate trip (10f) on ground too quick.

Also this dual Group 1 winner clocked a sensational 2m 27.07 on ground described as good to soft over C&D which is over 2 seconds quicker than when Enable won the Arc last year. They both had 9stone 2lb so Japan will actually be better off by 3lb than on those times and his time was on slower ground than Enable did.

Enable will pull out all the stops to land her third Arc but she is 4/7 and Japan is 7/1 so from a value point of view he makes plenty of appeal each way.

For a more detailed write up please click here https://www.mylittletip.co.uk/post/big-in-japan

(NB - For the Nap records this will be recorded as a win bet but the advice is each way)

Saturday October 5th 11.15am 🚀 NAP is EVA MARIA 1.40 Newmarket @ 10/3 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred.

Result - 💣 WON 4/1 SP!

Richard Fahey’s filly Eva Maria was a 260,000gns vendor buy back in October 2017 and has made an encouraging start to her career.

She started off with a decent third on her first run then thumped the field at Thirsk on her second run beating the now 77 rated Critical Time, who has since gone on to win, by 4 lengths. 

She’s on a mark of 88 today but the manor of her last win suggests there is more to come, she won going away and certainly looks one for the future. 

Paul Hanagan takes the ride. 

Friday October 4th 11.00am 🚀 NAP is CARAVAN OF HOPE 4.20 Ascot @ 5/4 WilliamHill

Result - 💣 WON

Class 3 Novice race but all 5 runners are actually still maidens. The overnight fav King Power must hold a chance on her best form but has beaten one horse home in last two runs (last of three LTO on a/w and 10th/11 in a weak Italian Oaks), Pianissimo wears blinkers and doesn't look straightforward while Two Birds connections try C/P in a bid to halt his disappointing run (well beaten last two at Evens & 5/6).

40/1 Outsider Its Nice Tobe Nice is 25lb wrong at the weights and she has done nowhere near enough to suggest she can trouble this field so far.

That leaves 150,000gns Book1 yearling Caravan Of Hope, a son of Nathaniel and half brother to Grandee (OR high 102) and Weather Watch (Or high 98) who looks a dour stayer but he is very effective on this ground. Two runs ago he was readily outpaced and looked to be heading to the back of the tv screen before picking up well and staying on strongly late in the day on for 3rd behind 101 rated Qarasu (that was 10f, 12f today)

LTO he was beat 2.75 lengths by Trueshan (getting 7lb) over today's trip but that was on much quicker ground than todays and the winner is now rated 93 after another decent run since. Also the 4/7 Fav that day Alignak was 8 lengths further back in 3rd (off level weights with Nap) but he has won since and is now rated 89.

Seeing how weak most of this field finish their races the stiff Ascot uphill finish should be perfect for COH and he should grind them down late on.

Thursday October 3rd 11.18am 🚀 NAP is OBSESSION FOR GOLD 8.30 Chelmsford @ 6/1

Coral/Ladbrokes/BetVictor/Unibet.

Result 3rd

Mrs Ilka Gansera-Leveque boasts some decent statistics with sprinters sent from her Newmarket base and this gelding has been running as if a drop back in trip to 6f is what he needs.

LTO over 1 mile he was a 33/1 no hoper (50 bfsp) but looked the winner on the home turn (traded 3/1 in running) before fading back to 4th. 

That was not the first time he looked like a sprinter, on his French debut he showed speed and pulled hard over 1 mile on his second start. On his first handicap over C&D he reared at the start but showed a nice turn of foot before meeting traffic and looked unlucky. That was off 55 and today he returns to 6f for the first time off just 49 and granted a clean break can land this weak heat.

There has been morning money for the filly Frea but her trainer is just 3/110 in 2019 and they went hard up front on her last start which may have flattered her. She did take a whack leaving the stalls and she was the eye catcher running on late but will have her work cut out to beat our selection if he comes away on terms and she is only half the price anyway.

Wednesday October 2nd 11.53am 🚀 NAP is BE PROUD 7.55 Newcastle  @ 11/8 Bet365

Result - 5th

Today’s NAP Be Proud is an ex Richard Hannon gelding who originally started his career off a handicap mark of 67.

He left the yard in September 2018 to go to Mike Smiths but after 3 disappointing runs he was moved on again, this time to Jim Goldie’s.

He has improved massively for the switch and has put in 5 solid runs back to back including 2 runs where he was desperately unlucky and could easily have won. 

He showed his liking for Newcastle last time out with an emphatic victory over 5f. 

He’s up to 6f today but he stays a lot further and is 6lb well in (races off 57, new mark is 63).

Paddy Mathers is back on board, taking over from Corey Madden.

 

Tuesday October 1st 11.32am 🚀 NAP is ROSA 6.10 Kempton @ 11/10 Bet365

Result - 💣 WON

Archie Watson’s debutant Rosa has been subject of significant morning support and looks well drawn in stall 2.

She cost £68k at the breeze ups in April having clocked an exceptional 2f split and this daughter of Camacho looks one for the future. 

The trainer has had 19 winners from 78 all-weather debutants, a 24.4% strike rate, and he is operating at a 31.3% profit to SP.

Rosa’s main market rival Colouring raced keen on debut, fading away (albeit over 6f on soft ground) and looks one to take on. 

Hollie Doyle takes the ride.

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