Tuesday December 31st 12.20pm 🚀 NAP is CORAZON ESPINADO 2.45 Lingfield @ 9/1 Bet365 and 8/1 most firms

Result - 2nd (traded 1.8 in running)

Previous Nap winner @ 7/1 when holding on over 7f at Epsom off 82. Perfect trip and should be back to best now with three runs under his belt after a four month break. LTO he led to the furlong pole over 1m and back to 7f can land this. Lack of pace should help too and can lead them along from stall 10. Raced twice here over this trip before finishing 2nd on both occasions.

Trainer opened today's card with a winner (Roundabout Magic), his 5th winner from last 20 runners.

Tom Marquand rides and gets on with him well having finished 1-1-1-2 on him from just 7 rides.

 

 

Monday December 30th 11.30am 🚀 NAP is ARCHDEACON 3.20 Lingfield @ 12/1 Bet365/Coral/Ladbrokes/Betfred

Desperatly unlucky with very bad draws on numerous occasions before finishing a desperatly unlucky 2nd off 47 at Wolverhampton on his 8th run. Bolted up 5 lengths NTO but was then off the track for 6 months.

Would have needed the run first go back at 9.5f (raced keen) and ran a lot better when last seen 9 days ago when upped to 12f for the first time. He pulled hard for the most part until understandably fading in the last 2f.

Remains on 58 but dropped back in trip today to 10f and his trainers tend to need a couple of runs after an absence so every reason to think he will improve today on his last two runs.

Jockey Sophie Ralston takes over in the saddle getting an extra 5lb and whilst she has a modest strike rate she does well with the ammunition she has had recently. She only had 5 winners from 2013 to 2017 but has had 19 winners since 2018. This year alone she has had winners at 100/1, 25/1, 16/1 and 3 at 12/1 amongst others for an ROI of 36.8% to SP (258.8 to BFSP) in 2019. Her A/E in all weather handicaps during this period is 1.69, higher than any other jockey in this race.

 

Sunday December 29th 11.50am 🚀 NAP is XIAN EXPRESS 12.40 Southwell @ 2/1 Betfair/PaddyPower.

Result - TBA

 

Saturday December 28th 11.53am 🚀 NAP is ZULU DAWN 12.45 Catterick @ Evens Bet365/Unibet

Result - Unseated Rider

 

Friday December 27th 11.00am 🚀 NAP is ELUSIVE BELLE 3.35 Kempton @ 6/4 Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, William Hill

Result - 2nd

 

Thursday December 26th 11.00am 🚀 NAP is EPATANTE 2.30 Kempton @ 10/3 Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair

Result - WON 💣

 

Saturday December 21th 09.30am 🚀 NAP is BIG SHARK 2.05 Haydock @ 6/5 Betvictor

Result - 2nd

Friday December 20th 11.52am 🚀 NAP is BLAKES VISION

5.30 Wolverhampton @ 2/1 Bet365, Betvictor

Result - 12th

 

Thursday December 19th 11.22am 🚀 NAP is BLUE MONDAY 3.10 Hereford @ 2/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betvictor

Result - WON 💣

 

Wednesday December 18th 11.00am 🚀 NAP is SUBWAY SURF 1.30 Ludlow @ 11/10 Skybet, Ladbrokes, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betvictor

Result - 2nd

 

Tuesday December 17th 11.00am 🚀 NAP is CONDARCIA 12.25 Catterick @ 11/2 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred.

Results - 9th

Monday December 16th 11.00am 🚀 NAP is UNCLE SWAYZE 6.10 Wolverhampton @ 5/4 Bet365, Skybet, Betfair, Betvictor, Paddy Power.

Result- 5th

Late foal (8th May) and taken time to come to hand, not appearing on the track until 31 October.

Made an extremely eye catching debut though at Kempton when forced wide from stall 14/14 by Secret Smile in stall 13 as she veered left leaving the stalls and he in an impossible position after just a few strides. Tracked wide from there and bumped along for most of the 7f race appearing to want further but would have gone into many trackers when flying late and looking desperatly unlucky in 5th.

Step up to 1m1f and the extra 2f should do the trick today especially as his dam won over 1m4f and was by Hernando.

Ralph Beckett has an exceptional record with horses on their second start with 41 winners from 205 (20% S/R with over 40% making frame and a positive ROI even to SP).

Sunday December 15th 9.49am 🚀 NAP is CLOUDY GLEN 1.20 Carlisle @ Evens Ladbrokes/Coral/Sportingbet

Result - 2nd

Six year old lightly raced Cloudings gelding. Progressive hurdler last season with three wins from just four starts.

Unfancied at 10/1 but travelled well on chase debut last month and touched 4/9 in running when leading to 2f out but a combination of a stiff 3 miles and 8 months off the track took their toll late on.

Looks an exciting prospect and should get an uncontested lead today. The drop in trip to 2m5f looks sure to suit and given his trainers record in this type of race at this time of year hopefully he can lead all the way. Venetia Williams is 18/74 in Novice Handicap Chases in Nov/Dec last 5 years with a £1 level stake profit of £47.25, 63.4% ROI and an incredible A/E of 1.49. To BFSP thats 89.5% ROI!

Saturday December 14th 10.46am 🚀 NAP is ROCKING REG 4.50 Wolverhampton @ 7/4

Bet365/Skybet/WHills/PaddyPower/BetVictor and others.

Result - 2nd

Race confined to horses costing less than £15,000 and unlikely to be any world beaters in this line up.

Rocking Reg was a €22,000 foal but qualifies as he only cost £13,000 at the breeze up sales. He made a pleasing debut when slow away and then meeting trouble but finished a promising 5th/10 at Windsor. He reappeared last month finishing 2nd when splitting Auchtrader (rated 87) and Minhaaj (who won next start and now rated 82), the three clear of the rest.

That form is easily the best on offer and he can put that experience to good use and land the prize here.

Roger Teal is enjoying his best ever year with 21 winners (previous best 20 in 2016) with a ROI of 40.31 to SP (83.7 to BFSP) and has carried that form right throughout 2019 with his most recent runner a 7/2 winner on Thursday (2 winners and 3 seconds from last 11).

Friday December 13th 12.16pm 🚀 NAP is WHOAREYOUANYWAY 7.15 Dundalk @ 7/4 Bet365/Skybet/Ladbrokes/PaddyPower/BetFred

Result - 💣WON 

A Lethal Force gelding out of and Exceed And Excel mare who caught the eye on debut with very late gains over an inadequate 5f on his belated debut in October at Naas on dead ground. Missed break and bumped on his second start before appearing to run in behind rivals when heavily eased over 6f and again caught the eye.

However that was on heavy ground so both starts were on the opposite of what his pedigree would suggest he'd appreciate. He left that form well behind when running a belter LTO on his first all weather start, a much quicker surface. 

From a bad draw (stall 11) he was forced wide while the two market leaders fought it out from good draws and prominent positions throughout. The winner Prince Of Naples is rated 92 and he lost nothing in defeat going down under 3L in 3rd having conceded so much ground. A decent draw would have seen him a lot closer and with nothing of that calibre in tonights race he can utilise a good draw and land the prize on handicap debut off just 76.

Interestingly since 2010 Ger Lyons has great numbers with younger horses on handicap debut with 26 winners from 140 with an A/E of 1.47 and 19% profit to SP while jockey Colin Keane has had a superb 2019 in all weather handicaps with a 20.6% strike rate (51.2% made frame) for an ROI to SP of 54.4% profit and A/E of 1.56.

 

Thursday December 12th 11.31am 🚀 NAP is JALWAN 5.05 Wolverhampton @ 5/2 WilliamHill/BetVictor

Dirt pedigree being by Grade 1 and 2 winner Wicked Strong out of a dirt bred mare City Run.

Result - 4th

Sent off 33/1 on debut at Kempton in August but pipped in a three way photo when running a sound race over 7f. Returned there after a 3 month break when missing the break from stall 8 but showed plenty of pace to take up the running after 2f. Despite using plenty of fuel early he held Boccaccio to the 2f pole (rated 95) and finished a creditable 4th. He was only 0.75L behind a race fit 76 horse off level weights and had he not done so much work early may well have beaten him and that run should have him spot on now.

Today's tapeta surface should suit him more on pedigree and he can make a fist of it from stall 3 under Daniel Muscatt.

Morning fav Holy Eleanor has been beaten Fav in her two recent handicaps off marks of just 66 & 67 and the yard have reached for the headgear so makes limited appeal at the morning odds despite her obvious chance. Millionaire Waltz is interesting on form but its worth noting the sire is only 2/67 on tapeta and they have gone for a tongue tie.

Wednesday December 11th 11.34am 🚀 NAP is QUE QUIERES 5.55 Chelmsford @ 7/4 bet365/Skybet/BetVictor/Coral/Betfred

Result 4th

Bernardini gelding who cost $85,000 as a yearling at Kentucky Keeneland sales but well beaten in three Novice races (66/1, 100/1 & 150/1) over shorter trips and gained an opening mark of 48. 

Made handicap debut here upped to 2mile and ran well in 2nd finishing behind the Stoute trained colt 1/6 Fav Jeweller. Then ran a stormer over 14f when things didn't go his way when waited for a gap to appear but found trouble once he got one, but was noted doing his best work late on. 

LTO he lost his maiden tag over C&D with a battling display when winning despite things not going to plan again in a 3 year old handicap.

Up 4lb today (48 to 52) but he gets a 4lb WFA allowance and looks set to run another massive race providing he gets a clean run round and he may prove very hard to beat.

Trainer Simon Dow has a great record in staying handicaps with 17 winners from just 93 in the last 5 years showing a profit of £24.82 to £1 stakes at SP with an ROI of 26.7%. (Should also be noted that that includes a year where his runners were totally out of sorts).

 

 

Tuesday December 10th 10.00am 🚀 NAP is WE'RE REUNITED 4.45 Wolverhampton @ 10/1 Bet365, 17/2 BetVictor/WilliamHill.

NON RUNNER

Kodiac colt who was a Book1 vendor buy back at 50,000 and made a pleasing debut despite pulling and racing green, staying on for third (winner rated 86 after) over 6f. Upped to 7f on second start but had the misfortune to bump into Surf Dancer (now rated 94) finishing a respectable second and on third start was third behind Tritonic (now rated 95) when beaten 1.75 L.

Yet again unlucky on 4th start to meet unraced Dance Fever when finishing second to him, who then won his next two starts and is now rated 91.

His 5th start was on soft ground at Chester in handicap company off 76 but he raced as if something amiss early on (maybe soft ground) and never travelled but the fact he was off for two months after makes it more forgiving.

Next seen in November but Ron Harris has a modest record with horses from a break and he cut across to the slower inside rail on the fibresand, disputing to the home straight. The first three home all raced off the rail and considering he would have probably needed that ran well to finish 4th off 75.

However arguably his best run was LTO at Kempton when drawn 12/12 and skewing left out the stalls. Put in a solid effort having raced wide and disputed to the 2f pole before a little short of room once beaten when 6th/12 

Wide draw again today a slight concern but the stats are not as bad here and trainer Ron Harris has had 20/151 A/W handicap winners in the last 2 years with an A/E 1.24 and 16% profit even to SP. He looks very well treated today off 73.

 

Monday December 9th 10.00am 🚀 NAP is LEZARDRIEUX 4.45 Newcastle @ 9/4 Bet365/Skybet/Ladbrokes/WHills/Coral/Blacktype/BetFred

Result - Won 💣 SP 5/2

A Due Dilligence gelding who was 33/1, 100/1 & 100/1 in his three Novice races and gained an opening mark of just 54. Pulled a long way clear of the field with Comeatchoo when winning over C&D 6 weeks ago but was only 5th/12 at Kempton off his new mark (60) 3 weeks ago.

However he couldn't get into a good position and was flying late on once able to get a run at them and back to a stiff 5f here he can make it 2/2 at this track.

Comeatchoo has a 2lb pull for half a length but has changed yards since and is more exposed having had 14 races already. 

Grant Tuer only had 4 handicap winners (78 runners) in his first two years training but has found his feet and has already had 18 from 96 this year (18.8% S/R) with an A/E of 1.37 and showing a profit even to SP. Those stats improve on just the all weather to 10/45 (22.2% S/R) and 43.6% profit to SP, A/E 1.57.

Jockey Sam James is in fine fettle too having had 4 winners from his last 15 handicap rides.

Sunday December 8th 11.07am 🚀 NAP is GRANGECLARE NATIVE 3.20 Punchestown @ 11/8 Bet365/Skybet/Ladbrokes/Blacktype/Betfred/Coral

Result - Won 💣 SP 6/4

Trainer/Jockey combo won with Wide Reciever yesterday having been purchased after a P2P win at Cragmore.

This gelding follows the same pattern having been purchased for £125,000 at the Cheltenham HIT sales in April 5 days after an easy P2P win at Curraghmore . Makes his eagerly awaited debut and should be able get his career off the mark under rules.

Jungle Junction is main market rival with two solid efforts from his three career starts but his trainer is now 1/43 in bumpers this year and his more exposed profile (having had 3 runs under rules) is not as appealing as the selections at the morning odds.

 

 

Saturday December 7th 10.35am 🚀 NAP is HARRY SENIOR 11.30am Aintree @ 5/4 Bet365/Ladbrokes/PaddyPower/BetVictor/WHills/Betred (11/8 in places with smaller firms)

Result 2nd (1.05 in running)

Ex pointer who faded over 3 mile on P2P debut this time last year. Next seen in April under rules in Bangor bumper when 3rd and front two have franked the form, both won since.

Then came 4th at Chepstow on hurdle debut on first run of this season and the form has worked out well again. On his most recent start he looked the winner jumping the last (traded 1.03) but couldn't hold off the very late challenge from Sporting John (who has hacked up again since).

Main market rival carries a 6lb penalty and that could prove crucial today and this son of Oscar easily gets todays Nap vote under Richard Johnson.

Friday December 6th 11.45am 🚀 NAP is DAZZLING DARREN 3.50 Newcastle @ 13/2 Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral/BetVictor/Betfred/Blacktype/888Sport and others.

Result 7th

First seen in August this year with three modest runs in races he simply had no chance in with the winners now rated 88, 94 and 102, gaining a lowly handicap mark of just 50. 

Made handicap debut a month ago (4th ever race) when clipping the heels of the horse in front and getting snatched up on the bend. Got going late and although only 4th/12 looked as though his mark was not too harsh, staying on well in the last furlong.

Then dropped 1lb to 49 and was again travelling well in inside rail but front running horse in front slowed quickly on the turn home and found himself boxed in at a critical point of the race where the first two home quickened away from him before he got going again, staying on steadily and almost getting 2nd on the line when 3rd/8.

Straight mile today would seem ideal and looks like needing further so this stiffer course should also help and looks set to run a big race off bottom weight of just 8-12 (O/R 49).

 

 

Thursday December 5th 8.00am 🚀 NAP is DUC DE BOURBON 3.50 Wincanton @ 2/1

Bet365/Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral/BetFred/Blacktype.

Result 4th

Out of a Garde Royale mare who threw Astracad (150 RPR) and at a top yard whose trainer has made no secret of how highly he regards this gelding. Being aimed at the New Years day bumper at Cheltenham and with the yard 17/66 with unraced bumpers at this track (25.7% and A/E 1.1) he can make an eagerly awaited debut by winning today.

Morning Fav Grand Roi deserves respect but more than likely he would need to show a marked improvement in form for respected new yard on what he has shown so far in French bumpers and may be one for later in the season (trainer showing a loss of 23.1% to SP in 'third' start bumpers and only 1/13 on stable debut from other yards).

Wednesday December 4th 11.00am 🚀 NAP is IGNATIUS 2.15 Lingfield @ 4/1 Bet365/Coral/Unibet/Sportingbet

Result 9th

His only win from 16 starts was over 10f back in April but has been campaigned over much further since then and despite looking threatening on many occasions lately has struggled to see out the 14 & 16f trips. Should relish being back to 12f today and now off lowest ever mark of 50 (win was off 51).

One of three 3 year olds in race who get the 4lb WFA allowance and that should be enough today with so much in his favour.

Wide draw to overcome but with 12 of todays field preferring hold up tactics it may not be the negative if first appears.

Trainer having a good year (19/110 handicaps, with 46% in frame, and a healthy a/e 1.25 and ROI to SP of 10.1%) and granted a clear run early can land the spoils.

 

 

Tuesday December 3rd 11.07am 🚀 NAP is STORM AHEAD 5.15 Wolverhampton @ 9/4

Ladbrokes/WHills/Bet365/Betfred and others

Result 2nd (1.1 in running)

Easy winner over C&D two weeks ago when sitting off the pace and flying at the finish. Michele Strogoff led that day and is in the race again so Tim Easterby's gelding should get the pace he needs again.

Smaller field, up 5lb (74 to 79) and different jockey (11/116) slight concern but a repeat of LTO should be enough and is value at the prices. Trainers handicap all weather runners doing so well this year (14/88 16% S/R and an ROI profit of 54.3% to SP) so Storm Ahead easily gets the Nap vote.

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