📅February 2020 🚀NAPS Results 

🐴 26 Selections 

💰 27.45 Returns

📈 5.57% ROI Profit

 

 

 

Saturday 29th Feb 🚀NAP is HARBOUR FRONT 6.30 Southwell @ 7/4 Ladbrokes

(sent to Telegram at 1.00pm)

Result - 2nd

Led away unsold at the breeze ups in April 2018 and then gelded in July 2019. 

Made belated debut in October when putting in a decent piece of work behind Pianissimo (who has won twice since, now 89) if looking a little laboured.

Dropped to 12f on second start but again ran on well, shaping like he needed further when finishing 4th (third horse won since and now rated 92).

Third run was a switch to this track, again over 12f, and the jockey had a prolonged battle most the way rousting him along at several intervals. Indeed he looked in trouble on the home turn but he battled it out to beat Straightouttacompton close home. Yet again the form has worked out well with the second winning his next two races.

The step up to 1m6f today looks exactly what he wants judged by his 3 races to date and the course form should stand him in well here.

As the only 4 year old in the race he can also claim 3lb WFA allowance and with his admirable trainer showing a 30.9% profit to SP with handicappers on fibresand he looks value at the current odds.

 

Friday 28th Feb 🚀NAP is UNITED FRONT 6.30 Dundalk @ 7/4 BetVictor/Coral

(sent to Telegram at 10.30am)

Result - 💣 WON - SP 5/6!

War Front colt who made a fairly decent debut when 4th, with the front 3 all rated above 100 now. Another fair effort followed when drawn 4 at Navan with the first three home racing closer to the faster rail drawn 2-1-3 and now rated 111, 91 & 92. Having raced furthest off the rail of those 4 he done well considering, those 4 finishing clear of the rest. The form after this race of the others and helps explain the 4/7 defeat.

Then packed his bags for Royal Ascot and the Chesham when last seen when 50/1 behind superstar Pinatubo. He finished 9th but was snatched up at a crucial point and whilst clearly he wouldn't have won he may well have finished closer with a clear run. 

Big drop in company tonight and a wide draw to overcome (12 but may race from 9 after reserves withdrawn) but the winning stalls numbers in 2020 at this track over 6f have seen wide stalls 12 and 13 bag one each from just 5 races and stall 8 one win.

Morning Fav Healy's Double is probably better than her form suggests (ex French for Vicky Haigh) and she will no doubt run a big race but she has to concede 9lb WFA to the AP O'Brien colt and that may prove a tricky task.

 

 

Thursday 27th Feb 🚀NAP is MAORI KNIGHT 6.30 Chelmsford @ 9/4 BetFred/PaddyPower/WHills

(sent to Telegram at 8.00am)

Result - 💣WON (Sp 8/11 !!)

Impressed on debut in July when sent off 25/1 and noted staying on in closing stages over 7f behind a pair from the powerful Godolphin operation. Only 4th of 5 on second start but only went down 1.5 lengths (again over 7f) and left distinct impression further would suit and the form has worked out ok.

That also fits his pedigree being by Camelot and todays step up to a mile should suit especially with the trainers record with younger horses after a break.

Night Voyager was held in high regard prior to his racecourse debut but has not lived up to his reputation so far at the track on two attempts but commands respect nonetheless. However he may need to pull out a fair bit more than he has shown if the selection runs his race.

Early money for Key Look on her debut but fluffed her lines at the start and whilst she looks a decent prospect she will need a lot of luck today with the car park draw (11/11).

 

 

Wednesday 26th Feb 🚀NAP is BRANDY PAD 1.40 Musselburgh @ 5/2 Skybet/Bet365 and others

(sent to Telegram at 11.59am)

Result - 2nd

Three mile P2P winner on bad ground this time last year and sold on soon after at the Cheltenham HIT.

Given three hurdle races for a handicap mark (sent off 80/1, 80/1 & 33/1) in October/November.

Made chase debut in handicap off 80 in December after attracting support in the market when sent off 7/2 second Fav. Struggled with a circuit to go (traded 2.5 in run) however and something clearly amiss when  pulled up. 

Returned to track a few weeks later with C/P applied upped to 3miles and travelled well up front (traded 3.4 in run) until emptying out on the run in. Showed ability though and with the combination of C/P again, drop to 2m4f and a recent wind operation he could cause his higher rated rivals a problem off bottom weight of just 10-4lb.

Sean Quinlan takes the ride for Jennie Candish and the same combination has already struck gold 6 times from 31 rides (19.3%) in 2020 with a 49.4% profit to BSP.

Casimir Du Clos looks another interesting runner but he will do well to concede 17lb to the selection even with a handy 3lb off from Sam Coltherd.

 

 

Tuesday 25th Feb 🚀NAP is BYTHEBAY 4.30 Lingfield @ 11/10 Skybet/Ladbrokes

(sent to Telegram at 11.20am)

Result - 2nd

Sent off a 50/1 no-hoper last month over C&D from a yard that seldom has debutant winners. However ran a stormer in defeat in 2nd behind a filly who pinched the race from the front. 

Clearly no world beater but that looks the best form of offer here and with natural progression should be able to see these off.

Trainer is 4 from last 13 runners on second start on the all weather last two years and is fancied to make that impressive stat 5 from 14.

Jockey Charles Bishop is also in fine fettle with 8/1 an 10/1 winners from his last 3 rides.

 

 

Monday 24th Feb 🚀NAP is DAZZLING DARREN 7.30 Wolverhampton @ 6/5 Bet365/BetFred

(sent to Telegram at 11.01am)

Result - 💣WON

Switched yards from Adam West at Ascot sales for under £5k in December to current connections.

Had to race of a mark of 60 on debut due to Irish rules of racing but managed to get into a weak 0-50 Class 6 Stakes race on second start for them, landing a gamble in the process.

Won again in handicap company upped to 12f LTO off 49, going about his work nicely and again well backed.

New mark of 53 but looks very well handicapped still and can land the hat-trick under the same jockey.

Trainer has an impressive 30.6% strike rate in handicaps with raiders sent across the sea with a 15% profit even at SP, remarkable considering many are heavily gambled.

Beggarman ran well on handicap debut and may come on but he will need to improve again to beat the selection.

 

 

Sunday 23rd Feb 🚀NAP is THOMAS DARBY 3.20 Fontwell @ 11/10 Bet365 and most firms, 6/5 with some smaller firms.

(sent to Telegram at 10.35am)

Result - 3rd

Hails from an in form yard with a staggering 21 winners from just 67 runners this year so far (41.8% ROI even to sp) and the form of this 7 year olds last victory couldn't have worked out better.

With the jockey allowance he was trying to concede 7lb to Song For Someone (yesterdays Nap) at Ascot off top weight. He ground it out up the stiff finish and looks to be one to be on the right side of today with that form taking a boost.

He is the best in on the adjusted weights in todays Grade 2 hurdle and the stiff finish can again work in his favour.

Welsh Champion Hurdle winner Monsieur Lecoq will be no pushover but the extra 4lb than if this were a handicap may well prove too much for the admirable gelding today.

William Henry and Chesterfield are likeable animals but age is creeping up on them both while Quel Destin, whilst no forlorn hope, will do well to beat the selection off level weights.

 

Saturday 22nd Feb 🚀NAP is SONG FOR SOMEONE @ 15/8  Ladbrokes/Bet365/PaddyPower

(sent to Telegram at 11.00am)

Result - 💣WON

Dual French province winner who has shown very progressive form since moving to Tom Symonds. 

Solid efforts in good company in handicaps off marks from 136 to 149 finishing 1-3-2 this season.

Another step up in class today but fully deserves his chance. Wears his heart on his sleeve and leaves nothing behind so expect a brave fight.

One of two 5 year old but all the others are 8 or more and he has the unexposed feel to him and at the rate he is improving can land his first Graded race.

 

 

Friday 21st Feb 🚀NAP is DARK HEART 2.25 Lingfield Southwell @ 11/4 Skybet/Bet365

(sent to Telegram at 11.27am)

Result - 3rd

Nathaniel colt who looked laboured over a clearly inadequate trip on debut in August. Scrubbed along virtually the whole way round and appeared to be going nowhere. However picked up nicely staying on strongly to the line in third behind a smart performer in Dubai Souq. 

Trainer does very well with this type after a break and this colt looks to have a lot to offer over 1m4f on only his second start. 

Morning fav Agreed must be a danger judged on her second place two months ago when last seen but this pair look hard to split on paper so at the odds preference must be for Mark Johnstons runner. 

Vega's Angel seemed too keen LTO and now upped in trip while Kommodity Kid, while holding a chance, may lack the quality fo the front two market leaders.

 

Thursday 20th Feb 🚀NAP is OLD HARBOUR 2.50 Southwell @ 2/1 Bet365

(sent to Telegram at 11.49am)

Result - 2nd 

Promising debut behind a heavily backed Archie Watson colt, looking as if a run was needed. Switches to fibresand today and his sire has a 19.4% strike rate (45.2% placed) on this surface and is out of a Danzig mare. 

Trainers form figures are exceptional even for his high standards (33123010250255113341021135234) and he can land this with a repeat of that debut run hopefully. Those figures look even better when just on this surface with a 28.6% strike rate in non handicaps in the past decade, excluding debutants (5 of last 9 have won).

Market move for Business, now Fav, but he is by Siyouni a sire that has yet to have a single placed horse on Fibresand albeit a small sample size (0/11). He has also left Martin Meades yard 'unraced' after the 'bit coin' scandal that rocked the industry and is now with John Quinn who is only 8/151 with his debutants in past 5 years. 

 

 

 

Wednesday 19th Feb 🚀NAP is DROP KICK MURPHI 5.30 Kempton @ 9/4 Bet365/Ladbrokes/WilliamHill 

(sent to Telegram at 11.15am)

Result - 3rd

Admirably consistent bottom grade performer who has put in a solid run of efforts this season. None more so than LTO when racing on the outside of the eventual winner using up plenty of fuel racing up with the pace. That run is similar to several others lately and looks like he has been crying out for a drop back to 6f, supported by the fact his 4 wins have all ben between 5.5f and 6f.

Seems to like this track too, having finished 2nd, 3rd & 4th from 3 double figured field size handicaps. 

Goes up 2lb soon for his recent second and this looks like a golden opportunity for him off bottom weight (46) in a race not many make appeal.

He is closely linked with es Que Magic on form but he is in stall 7, drawn outside the selection, and the trip drop may not favour him just as much. Irish raider A Stap Too Far may cause more problems but she is still a maiden (0/11) and despite her tumbling handicap mark she has changed yards from a respected stable and would need to up her game on what she has shown at the track to beat DKM.

Trainer not a prolific scorer but her last few runners have been in good form (224330421) and her last runner was Penrath Flyer who won @ 9/2 Monday.

 

 

Tuesday 18th Feb 🚀NAP is North Wind 7.00 Southwell @ 9/1 Bet365

(sent to Telegram at 11.30am)

Result - 4th

Ex Aidan O'Brien No Nay Never gelding who started his career with several solid efforts but mainly highly tried in Group/Listed company. Off the mark on 6th attempt when comfortably holding Pass The Vino (who went on to hit a high of 98) in a Naas Maiden.

Rated 94 and moved onto another yard but had 4 unsuccessful attempts in 2019, again highly tried before finding his way to current connections. 

Mark dropped to 88 and represents a prolific stable on fibresand (51/225 past decade 22.7% and incredible 44% placed).

Whilst his sire has only had 3 runners on this surface his grand father was the brilliant USA stallion Scat Daddy and his dam 'Kawn' threw, amongst others, Mundahesh, a tapeta winner off 86 and the 100 rated turf performer Jawhar.

Drawn stall 1 today in a race full of pace but with stall 2 having a preference for being held up he can utilise the track position.

Astro Jack is the market Fav and clearly has a great chance but he will need to bring his A game to threaten the selection if he goes on the surface.

NB-Several firms offering 3 places and whilst that is worth taking each way our results will be based on the 'win' market as usual!

 

 

Monday 17th Feb 🚀NAP is ARMED 4.15 Lingfield @ 7/1 Bet365/Ladbrokes/BetFred

(sent to Telegram at 10.32am)

Result - 6th

Bred by Bjorn Nielson (Stradivarius) and started life with Ed Walker. Gained a mark of 80 after three solid runs in novice company and then ran ok, if a little free, in two handicaps in 2018. 

Switched to Phillip Makin for whole of 2019 and strangely tried over trips from 7.5f to 12f despite seemingly racing too keen again on many occasions.

New connections now and immediately been dropped to 7f on stable debut after a 129 day break.

Handicap mark now dropped to a career low of just 65 and can cause the market leaders lots of problems if fully would up after his break.

Drawn stall 9/9 but that may not be the bad draw it appears. In the past decade there have been 22 winners from 131 runners in 9 runner races here, the highest of any stall, and while that's a smallish sample it clearly is not the negative the bookmakers seem to think. 

 

 

Saturday 15th Feb 🚀NAP is DAZZLING DARREN 4.20 Lingfield @ 5/2 Bet365/WHills/Betfred.

(sent to Telegram at 11.42am)

Result - 💣WON

Modest form for former trainer and purchased from Ascot sales for under £5k in December by shrewd Irish yard.

Had to race of a mark of 60 on debut due to Irish rules of racing but managed to get into a weak 0-50 Class 6 Stakes race on second start for them, landing a gamble in the process.

That was over 10f, the furthest he had been to date in his career and interesting he had to be rousted along a few times so the step up to 12f may not be the negative it would first appear on pedigree.

Trainer has an impressive 29.2% strike rate in handicaps with raiders sent across the sea with 56.2% making the frame, even showing a profit at SP despite them often getting heavily backed.

 

Friday 14th Feb 🚀NAP is RODIN 6.15 Southwell @ Evens Bet365/Ladbrokes/WHills/BetVictor and others.

(sent to Telegram at 8.54am)

Result - 💣WON

Mayson colt who cost 40,000gns out of Book3 as a yearling. Didn't make the track until October when backed into favourite for a Windsor maiden but disappointed on the heavy ground.

Turned out again at Kempton following month when showing signs of ability with plenty of speed before finding the 6f too much. Then dropped to 5f and managed to beat the now 80 rated Fav (receiving 7lb) but raced on the outside of eventual winner Endowement who led all the way from stall 1.

Second again on most recent start to the speedy filly Autumn Trail over 5f (officially rated 4lb lower but she had 5lb fillies allowance) with the 80 rated Spreadsheet in 3rd (levels).

Rodin's speedy nature should be well suited to this straight 4f 214 yards and with Mayson offspring showing best stats on fibresand (20/123 16.3%, I/V 1.49 and 13.6% ROI to SP) he can land the prize.

This is non handicap company again but technically best in of those with marks while market rival Sur Mer has flashed her tail on both runs to date and looks one to watch for now.

 

 

Thursday 13th Feb 🚀NAP is WINNETKA 5.30 Chelmsford 5.30 Kempton @ 9/4 Ladbrokes/BetVictor

(sent to Telegram at 10.30am)

Result - 4th

Started career with Richard Hannon with respectable effort at Windsor when only 8th but first 3 home went on to be mid 90 rated horses. Ran ok again second start when only going down under 4 lengths in warm maiden before finishing 5th at Epsom over7f. 

That gained an opening mark of 67 and traded 1.33 in run only to get pipped on handicap debut in July. 

Disappeared for 6 months before again trading short in running over 7f (1.25) and tearing through the field at the cut away. Finished 3rd but solid run after break.

LTO he made it a hat-trick of short priced in running defeats, this time 1.03, when seemingly nailing Hello Baileys on the line (over 6f) only for the photo to go against him. Those two were well clear of the field though and was another solid effort.

Those two runs should have him spot on and despite his mark going up 8lb for those three defeats he still looks well treated on 75.

Garsman, a 5/1 Telegram winner for us in a three runner race at Southwell last week, must hold a chance but this looks tougher and despite being technically 4lb well in (new mark of 77 not kicked in so races off 6lb pen only) he will have to overcome the widest birth (5/5) to land this.

 

 

Wednesday 12th Feb 🚀NAP is KYLLACHY DRAGON 8.30 Kempton @ 9/2 Bet365/Skybet/Betfair/PaddyPower/William Hill (sent to Telegram at 11.00am)

Result - 2nd

Started life as an 80 rated sprinter for Iain Jardine but despite some creditable efforts couldn't lose his maiden tag.

Then transferred to Ron Harris and won over todays C&D on first attempt off 74. Found life tough off new mark of 78 and mark been dropping since. Appeared to go lame on final start for him and moved onto current connections in October.

Taken a few runs to find his feet but last three runs (all 8f or more) he has shown plenty of pace and the drop back to 7f and at his favoured track could do the trick now off just 62.

The withdrawal of Elusif leaves a lack of pace with the low drawn runners and he could get an easy run round with and utilise a full tank of fuel in the home straight.

Trainer Mark Rimell is showing a 22.9% profit to SP with his flat handicappers and slightly higher on the all weather. 

 

 

Tuesday 11th Feb 🚀NAP is PRINCE OF EAGLES 3.15 Chelmsford @ Evens Labrokes/PaddyPower/Betfair (sent to Telegram at 10.45am)

Result - 💣WON

70,000gns Book 2 Free Eagles colt who made an eye catching debut at Kempton in December.

Massive alarming late drift on second start when missing the break and restrained out the back when only 4th behind a horse he had beaten easily on debut.

Made amends on his last start when winning easily at Lingfield and well supported to do so. 

Handicap debut today and opening mark of just 77 looks very fair on balance of the two runs he was put into his races. While his Derby entry may be ambitious he should be more than  capable of this mark in a race few others make any appeal.

Trainer David Lanigan does well in all weather handicaps with a decent 22.6% strike rate even showing positive returns to SP of 7.3% (13/55 last 2 years).

 

Monday 10th Feb 🚀NAP is BEAU GESTE 7.10 Wolverhampton @ 7/4 PaddyPower/Betfair/Unibet (sent to Telegram at 10.00am)

Result - 💣WON

Modest form in Ireland but made decent start on first run for current trainer off just 46 with a hard fought win. Despite running green he held Maqboola (52 that day) and that form has taken a boost with her two subsequent victories off 54 & 59 (2nd to her LTO Azets also won since).

Last seen getting pipped in a three way photo at Kempton but both the other two involved have come out and won since also franking the line of form. However he got trapped wide and looked the unlucky one. That looks like the best form on offer in this race and he can get back in the winners enclosure tonight off just 1lb higher than LTO with Hollie Doyle again taking the ride.

 

Sunday 10th Feb - No racing on 

 

Saturday 8th Feb 🚀NAP is PLUNGER 6.00 Wolverhampton @ 11/2 Bet365 (sent to Telegram at 10.15am)

Result - Non runner

Owner bred top of the ground performer when with Paul Cole. Earned a handicap mark of 85 and solid performances over 7 and 8f.

Mark in gradual decline recently and purchased by current yard for 18,000gns in October HIT sales.

Hood removed late on first start for them and clearly hated the surface at Southwell on next run.

LTO appeared unlucky when finding trouble twice  before getting loose in the home straight only to find more trouble when veering behind runners when seemingly holding a great chance if maintaining a straight path.

Adam Kirby looks an interesting jockey booking tonight and the yard has been going well with Deleyll landing a quick double (20/1 & 2/1), Ruby Gates 8/1 and last nights 50/1 unraced filly 'Special Lady' winning in style.  

 

Friday 7th Feb 🚀NAP is BOLD DECISION 4.35 Chelmsford @ 5/4 Bet365/Unibet (sent to Telegram at 11.08am)

Result - 5th

Was our Nap last time out when running on strongly but just failing to get up in a photo finish behind Elusif.

Extra furlong today and with those two over 5 lengths back to the well gambled third horse he can make amends today in what looks a lot weaker race. 

Trainer and jockey going great guns at the moment and granted a clear run should beat these.

Musee D'Orsay has been gambled on from the same yard but is 8lb out the handicap while main market rival Roca Magica will have to overcome stall 15 and has had several chances in handicaps on this type of mark already anyway.

 

Thursday 6th Feb 🚀NAP is GLORY AND FORTUNE 3.30 Doncaster @ 7/4 Ladbrokes/Corals (sent to Telegram at 12.05am)

Result - 2nd

€75,000 store who made good impression on debut last year at Cheltenham on good ground, winning comfortably.

Returned to track in October for another win but made some errors and done well to hold it together.

Lost his unbeaten tag behind two smart types at Haydock and ran well for 3rd considering he was very badly hampered 3 out by the second. 

Found the soft ground against him under a penalty LTO and back on good ground he can beat these assuming he settles into a nice rhythm.

Buzz holds a chance but may need further and slower ground while Group 3 Solario winner South Seas is yet to convince over hurdles.

 

Wednesday 5th Feb 🚀NAP is LATENT HEAT 2.30 Southwell @ 9/2 Ladbrokes/WHills/PaddyPower (sent to Telegram at 10.20am)

Result - 11th

Out of an American mare who threw 91 rated Spruce Meadows. He followed same path in that was trained by JJ Murphy early in career before moving on to another yard.

Latent Heat had three runs for Murphy and also followed the pattern of Be Fair, whom he raced against twice in Ireland. Be Fair came out and won his second and third starts for Tony Carroll after a pipe opener.

This Papal Bull gelding had a troubled route on stable debut but went down only a length looking as though the run would have done him well. Gets to run off his Irish mark again of just 60 and could be slung in if handling the surface. Not enough evidence on sires side but the USA link on the dams side could be enough hopefully.

Jem Scuttle and The Eagle's Nest both look dangers but he will take all the stopping if he follows the patterns of others on this yard switch and handling fibresand.

Elisha Whittington takes over in the saddle and with form figures of 11163102411232400 she can utilise her 7lb claim to maximum effect (A/E 1.52 in 2020)

Trainer Tony Carroll is also on fire, in 2020 he has already had 17 winners from just 84 runners for a healthy 104% ROI to SP (I.V 2.06) and £87.53 to £1 Level stakes.

 

Tuesday 4th Feb 🚀NAP is ILHABELA FACT @ 85/40 PaddyPower/Betfair (sent at 11.44 Telegram)

Result - 💣WON

Still an entire at 6 year old and showed signs of a return to form last two starts.

Prolific scorer here with all 4 victories between 11-12f off marks from 59-76. Found life tough off marks in the 80's and now back to 76 and with fitness not an issue he can go very close.

Main market rival and morning Fav Starfighter is 1/13 (turf win off 75). He was well supported LTO with Hollie Doyle on board off 1lb lower (Luke Morris takes over) but had to settle for 2nd. Head gear reached for today and whilst he is a big threat may have his work cut out off 79, conceding 3lb (only gets 1lb WFA)

 

 

Monday 3rd Feb 🚀NAP is BEZZAS LAD 6.30 Wolverhampton @ 2/1 Ladbrokes/Coral (Posted Telegram at 11.11AM).

Result - 10th

Society Rock gelding who paid a heavy price for some solid efforts in spring last year, earning an opening mark of 74. 

Gelded and showed little until dropped down in weights and has looked speedy over 6f while mark continued to drop. 

Returned after 4 months off last month and backed into favouritism but raced with the choke out over 6f again.

Dropped another pound for that and now returns to the minimum trip off a career low mark of 63 and that run should have sharpened him up.

Alistair Rawlinson takes the ride again and is in fine form with 5 wins from last 12 rides.

 

Sunday 2nd Feb 🚀NAP is I K BRUNEL 2.50 Musselburgh @ 2/1 Bet365/Ladbrokes

Result -  💣WON

Youngest in the line up and by prolific sire Midnight Legend, picked up as a €62,000 store.

Easy winner on seasonal debut before heading to Cheltenham. Sent off just 8/1 against the likes of Thyme Hill and Champagne Well but found the very slow ground against him.

Had a penalty and soft ground last run behind a smart Tizzard runner but today looks a lot easier and could get the run of the race here. Looks the value at the morning odds to beat the odds on fav. 

Yard on fire with 5 winners from last 10 runners and they landed his first ever Grade 1 victory yesterday

 

 

 

Saturday 1st Feb 🚀Nap is SHARJAH 3.10 Leopardstown @ 6/4 Bet365/BetVictor (11.08 Telegram)

Reslut - 6th

Hails from leading yard and coming along nicely this season judged by his comfortable victory last month. Dispatched his rivals rather cheekily and with course form vital he holds the upper hands on main market rival, the impressive Honeysuckle. 

She gets a 7lb fillies allowance and looks a big runner but will have to put in a career best to beat this multiple Grade 1 winner (two of them here).

With Apple's Jade and Klassical Dream both absent it looks between the pair and at the morning odds Sharjah seems better value.

FOLLOW US

OUR CHOSEN CHARITIES

NHS Charities

 

Young Minds Trust

 

CLIC Sargent

©2020 by My Little Tip

gamble aware (1).png