📅January 2020 🚀NAPS Results 

🐴 27 Selections 

💰27.175 Returns

📈 0.06% ROI Profit

Friday 31st Jan - 🚀Nap is MOTAWAAFEQ 5.45 Newcastle @ 7/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral, Betfred (Posted Telegram 11.01)

Result - 7th

Expensive French bred Wootton Bassett Book 2 yearling who started his racing career back in his homeland for Chantilly based trainer John Hammond in the famous silks of owner Hamdan Al Maktoum.

Unraced at two he had three fair runs in France (8-10f) before he was sold at the HIT sales in October. Picked up by a trainer well known for improving horses and he wasted no time, getting off the mark on his first start for new connections over 7f at Wolverhampton. Decent run considering he made a hash of the start and raced wide, getting up late in the day.

Upped in trip on next three starts but been too keen last two over (10f & 12f). 

Hasn't looked the most comfortable running bends either and the combination of a stiff mile and, for the first time in his career a straight course, this looks an ideal race for the colt to land his second victory off only 1lb more than his 7f victory.

Jockey Alistair Rawlinson had a great start to 2020 with a 17% strike rate and trainers recent form figures of 211402420162 look to bode well for today.

 

Thursday 30th Jan - 🚀Nap is AUGUSTUS CAESAR 1.20 Southwell 9/4 Bet365/Skybet/William Hill

(Posted 10.30 AM Telegram)

Result - 3rd

Lightly raced American colt who exchanged hands 3 times before hitting the track.

Two modest efforts before running a blinder here behind Maystar, who has won twice since and is now rated 97. In receipt of a penalty that day but still comfortably the best form on offer in going down by under a length to him. 

Won next start at Lingfield on handicap debut off 70

Then changed hands again at the HIT sales but stayed in the same yard and can get back to winning ways not back to the course of what was a great run in hindsight.

Trainer in good form this year with 6 winners from just 24 runners.

Wednesday 29th January 🚀Nap is BALLYELLIS 2.45 Leicester @ Evens Bet365/Skybet

Ultra consistent gelding with last 8 runs 2-1-1-2-1-1-2-2.

Result - 3rd

Put in a solid performance LTO when 2nd over C&D on bad ground.

Earned an RPR of 128 for that (main market rival 115 on same ground when winning a distance) and is 8lb well in with Baracalu on adjusted weights. Also jockey Jordan Naylor (won on him 3 times) takes off 5lb to his 3lb so is actually only physically carrying 3lb more compared to 13lb if this were a handicap (pre jockey alowances) and this looks a great opportunity to collect more silverware.

Tuesday 28th January 🚀No Nap

Monday 27th January 🚀Nap is THE CON MAN 3.15 Kelso @ 5/4 Bet365/Skybet (10.15 Telegram)

Result - 💣 WON

Lightly raced 7 year old who looks well in here off 128 despite the defeat LTO on handicap debut when 2nd to Flinck off 123. 

Form of previous 2nd looking decent too with Maries Rock (who received 12lb that day off the selection) winning a Listed Hurdle since. Should go well and looks the one to beat granted a clear round of hurdling.

Sunday 26th January 🚀No Nap

Saturday 25th January 🚀Nap is STATELY HOME 1.45 Lingfield @ 11/8 Betvictor/ William Hill (09.15am Telegram)

Result - 2nd

Friday 24th January 🚀Nap is DEEDS NOT WORDS 2.15 Lingfield @ 15/8 Skybet (11.09am Telegram)

Result - 3rd

Landed a double for us with 10/1 (Forum) and 2/1 (Nap) wins on his last two starts bringing his career tally to 17 wins (including 3 over C&D). Ultra reliable when on form as seen on by most his previous wins which have come in the form of two hat-tricks, two braces and a 1-2-1 clearly showing signs of benefitting from quick reappearances. The handicap wins range from mark from 64 to 88 (before his most recent last week off 51) and he races today off just 51 without a penalty (apprentice race). 

Kieran O'Neill is back in the saddle (1/1 on him) and hopefully he can land another hat-trick for himself and us!

Main market rival Sir Hector should also go well but, whilst Deeds Not Words is off the same mark as his win LTO, he is up 2lb for a defeat last month.

 

Thursday 23rd January - No Nap

Wdnesday January 22nd 🚀 NAP is MINELLA TRUMP 3.00 Catterick Newcastle @ 11/10 Betfair/Betfred/Betway/WilliamHill (09.31am Telegram group)

Result - 2nd

Tuesday January 21st 🚀 NAP is MAJESTIC SANDS 5.45 Newcastle @ 6/5 Bet365/Skybet (11.00am Telegram group)

Result - 4th

Made 100,000gns as a foal, 77,000 yearling and 90,000 at the Craven breeze ups.

Impressive debut when running very green and hanging left for the most part but winning cosily in the end. The second horse is now rated 87 with others well beaten in behind now rated 78, 74, 74 and 68.

Connections clearly rated him highly and went straight for the Group 2 Norfolk at Royal Ascot. He showed good speed for the first 4.5 furlongs, disputing the running to just before the furlong pole before fading away on the stiff finish. Even so he was beaten less than 7 lengths by the likes of Arizona, Threat, Golden Horde and Guildsmen.

Off since but back to 5f and this looks a great opportunity for him to get his career back on track on only his third ever start for a yard that can ready them first time out.

Youneverletmedown was well supported into favouritism on debut over 1m at Kempton and led them along for 6f but faded late on. Drop to 5f should suit her however this is a marked step up in class and despite getting 12lb from the front pair in the betting and clearly holding a small chance here she may just find this too tough but deserves some respect nonetheless. 

 

Monday January 20th 🚀 NAP is FLEETING PRINCE 2.50 Kempton @ 3/1 PaddyPower/Betfiar/BetVictor/Unibet (11.30 Telegram)

Result - 3rd

€70,000 foal by No Nay Never who was held in high regard when with Jeremy Noseda. Switched unraced to Charles Hills and ran well on debut behind 90 rated Huboor and followed that with an easy win at Windsor.

Next seen stepped into group class in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood but heavily eased when beaten (sent off 33/1) behind Golden Horde and dual group winner Threat. Last seen in the 'Mums Tipple' race at York when again eased when beaten.

This is a massive step down in class (6lb well in on adjusted figures) and with his sires record on Polytrack 9/47 (9/38 over 6f) and the trainers only two 3 year old colts winning this year (Tommy De Vito & Cable Speed) he may cause a small upset as he his 3rd of 4 in the betting. 

 

Saturday 18th January 2020 (11.00am on Telegram) 🚀 is DEEDS NOT WORDS 4.45 Chelmsford @ 2/1 Bet365/WHills/BetFred/PaddyPower

Result -  💣 WON

Veteran performer with 16 wins to his name and ultra reliable when on song. Those wins have come in the form of two hat-tricks, a brace and a 1-2-1 clearly showing signs of benefitting from quick reappearances. The handicap wins range from mark from 64 to 88 and after his classified win last week he steps back into handicap company today off just 51 on only his third start for his in form trainer. Indeed even the run before his victory last time out, when on stable debut, he ran very well in 6th having fluffed his lines at the start, finishing very fast from a hopeless position 2f out going down just over a length. 

Ask The Guru was 2nd in that race but he will need to improve to beat the selection should he come away on terms this time.

 

Friday 17th January 2020 (10.30am on Telegram) 🚀 is TOMMY DE VITO @ 7/2 Bet365/BetFred

Result - 💣WON

Dandy Man colt from Hillwood Stud who fluffed his lines on debut when falling out the stalls over C&D 74 days ago. However ran on well to finish 1.25 lengths behind 83 rated Asmund who had the benefit of 7 races under his belt and the crucial race fitness/experience.

Should have learnt a lot from that and can go well again especially as the trainer is 10/54 on 'second starts' after a break.

Odds on fav Never Dark has been well supported and looks an obvious danger as he also ran behind an 80+ rated horse on debut but unlike the Nap he did get the run of the race from a decent draw on the rails at Kempton on debut and was beat 3.25 lengths by an 'unraced' horse who was drawn wide. From a value perspective they are 7/2 and 8/11 which looks way too far apart on paper considering they both appear to have similar chances.

Thursday 16th January 2020 (11.30am on Telegram) 🚀 is BOLD SUITOR 5.00 Newcastle @ 5/2 BetFred

Result - 💣WON

Book 2 yearling costing £81,900 who ran well on belated debut when 7th in October, beaten less than 4 lengths. He then clearly failed to act on heavy ground on his second start before running his best race yet on his latest effort. He took a bump leaving the stalls while the first three early in the race held their positions all the way to the line in a slowly run race. The only two horses that ran on well from the back were Disco Fever (who won by 5 lengths on his next start) and Bold Suitor (who gets in here off just 66).

Trainer on fire too with his recent all weather handicappers showing form figures of  11010236210411222 (6 winners from 17) while in all races in 2020 his ten runners have had 8 finish first or second.

Wednesday 15th January 2020 (11.15am on Telegram) 🚀NAP is BOLD DECISION 3.00 Wolverhampton @ 3/1 Bet365.

Result - 7th 

Recent intake from Irish yard and previous one who switched between these two stables (Beau Geste) won last month @ 11/2 at this track.

Form of this gelding looks more encouraging though. The form of his first two starts on soft ground (7f & 8f) were left well behind when dropped in trip to 6f on good ground  when running on well behind 93 & 79 rated horses but getting only 2lb after adjustments to his two more experienced elders, running on strongly outrunning his 66/1 odds in 5th.

LTO he was upped to 8f and raced keen. 

New stable having a sensational start to 2020 with 8 winners from 35 runners (23% S/R) and an A/E 1.43 (£1 LSP returns £78.50) of which his last 10 all weather handicappers have had a 50% strike rate!!

Tuesday 14th January 2020 (10.18am on Telegram) 🚀NAP is ROSARNO 6.30 Chelmsford @ 11/4 Bet365/Skybet

Result - 💣WON

Chelsea Banham’s gelding Rosarno has been plummeting in the weights recently and looks to be appealing as he is the best in at the adjusted ratings (previously had marks of 83 on the turf and 81 on the AW). He’s been an incredibly consistent performer in handicaps having ran solidly in all 4 starts for his trainer, coming 4th, 3rd, 2nd and 4th in the process. This is a drop in class and could be a perfect opportunity. Last time out he lead at the furlong poll over 1m and this is now a drop in distance to 7f which could prove to be an ideal trip nowadays.

 

 

Monday 13th January 2020 (8.46am on Telegram) 🚀NAP is FUNNY KID 5.50 Wolverhampton @ 5/2 Bet365/Skybet

Result - 2nd

Classy French trained seven year old entire.

Acts well on this surface and has strong American blood line. 

Looked to be cantering all over Raymon Tusk LTO at Newcastle and traded 1/10 in running only to be nailed late on. Easier track tonight should suit and looks value at the morning prices to give the Fav a headache in this Championship Fast-Track Qualifier tonight.

Sunday 12th January 2020 (11.28am on Telegram) 🚀NAP is MYMILAN 2.30 Kelso @ 6/5 Bet365/Skybet.

Result - 2nd

Maiden pointer (placed once on heavy ground and in second place when falling on heavy again on another from 5 starts) who was picked up cheaply by shrewd connections.

Given four hurdle outings (50/1 + in all four) before exploiting a ridiculous opening handicap mark of just 89 on handicap chase debut over 2 miles. 

That was over an inadequate 2 miles and today's trip, just shy of 3 miles, looks sure to suit this very lightly raced son of Milan and he can go in again with a clear round off just 95.

Smart trainer with handicap chasers, especially in winter N/H season with a phenomenal record of 30 winners from 147 starts a ROI of 53.7% profit to SP. 23 of those 30 winners are since 2016 (26% strike rate with A/E 1.5 and 67% ROI)

Saturday 11th January 2020 (10.32am on Telegram) 🚀NAP is ON THE BLIND SIDE 3.15 Kempton @ 15/8 Bet365

Result - 3rd

Purchased after winning a P2P in 2017 for £205,000 and rattled off a hat-trick before being sent off 11/8 Fav for the Mersey Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1) at Aintree. Only managed 6th and a wind operation soon followed 4 months later.

Started his chase career this time last year and won impressively over C&D on second attempt. Mixed results since but back to his favoured conditions and mark of 147 looks workable.

Trainer Nicky Henderson having good time in handicap chases over past year with 18 winners from 86 runners and an A/E of 1.57 with a profit to SP of 27.3%

Friday 10th January 2020 (9.03am on Telegram) 🚀NAP is MOUNT MOGAN 3.25 Lingfield @ 2/1 Bet365/BetFred

Result - 2nd

Helmet gelding from Kirtlington Stud but missed intended book 2 sales date.

Belated track debut (when 66/1 unfancied last month), tracking leaders having broke well. However found himself losing ground before picking up late from out of camera shot, running on well for 5th after the race was over.

He comfortably finished ahead of Ayr Harbour, who raced wide with him, and that won yesterday (10/1 forum pick) off 74 and considering Mount Mogan gets 16lb off the third horse in the betting today, who is rated just 65, he looks to have a great chance today.

Trainer has modest strike rate with debutants and with that experience under his belt he can improve in what looks a weaker race.

He may need 7/8f with time but looks the one to beat and if he can keep up with them early should be able to land the prize.

Thursday 9th January 2020 11.12am (on Telegram) 🚀NAP is LONDON ARCH 3.00 Newcastle 15/8 Skybet/Betfred/Ladbrokes and others (2/1 Unibet)

Result Won 💣15/8

£210k Fastnet Rock yearling who made an impressive debut at Chelmsford last month, finishing 2nd behind a well fancied 550,000gns Gosden colt. However London Arch was off the bridle a long way out and racing wide of the two market principles all the way, staying on well to the line.

Trainer not known for debutant winners so highly likely he will improve a bundle on that and with the stiffer course likely to suit his run style he can get the better of the expensive market rival, who cost $800,000 but may need to be something special to beat the selection.

Also his sire has impressive stats on Tapeta with a decent return even to SP.

Wednesday 8th January 2020 11.00am (on Telegram) 🚀NAP is UNION 3.30 Newcastle @ 11/10 Bet365/Unibet.

€90,000 Arqana breezer after clocking a fair 2f split in May in France.

Result Won 💣6/5 SP

Made a belated debut in November when 5th at Kempton form a wide draw. 

However that form looks interesting as the first four home all had prominent positions and he was the only runner to threaten from the 10 who raced out the back from the widest stall. Flying late on he left the impression a stiffer track would suit and whilst he may benefit from some pace today he looks the one they have to beat and should pick them off with ease.

Morning support for him looks significant whilst his market rival has to concede 2lb to him and that may prove a tough ask. 

Jorgie (50/1) made an encouraging debut having switched to stands side and then back again to far side and may be worth a small bet at 25/1 each way on the  'without the fav' market in the same race.

Tuesday 7th January 2020 10.10am 🚀NAP is MASTERS LEGACY 1.00 Taunton @ 11/10 Ladbrokes/BetVictor/PaddyPower/Betfred/Skybet

Result - 💣Won

£30,000 vendor buy back at store sales and made impressive debut here when staying on behind Wild Max who franked the form winning again (now rated 133).

Followed that with an impressive win last month returned to this track and although a little green shaped as though he'd improve for the run and a step up in trip.

Upped to a more suitable 2m3f with same jockey on board and trainer has hit 7 winners in past fortnight.

Monday 6th January 2020 11.30am 🚀NAP is CELESTIAL WOOD 5.15 Wolverhampton @ 9/1 Bet365/Ladbrokes/BetFred

Result 5th

Very speedily bred Ivawood gelding who surprisingly made his debut over a stiff 8f at Newcastle last month.

Raced very keen for 5f before throwing down a challenge to the furlong pole before understandably fading back into 9th.

Dropped to 6f for his second start and this is a leading yard in the UK for horses having second start. In the last 5 years Keith Dalgleish has had 33 winners from just 169 for a strike rate of 20% and an incredible ROI of 32% to SP. 

 

 

Sunday 5th January 2020 11.30am 🚀NAP is BEECHWOOD JAMES 3.30 Southwell @ 13/8

Ladbrokes/WilliamHill/Betfred/BetVictor

Result 6th

Modest 0-50 Stakes race with very little course form on offer from the six runners.

However Beechwood James (second best in on these terms to 8 year old Optima Petamus who is unraced on Fibresand) showed a marked upturn when 5th here over C&D in handicap company when in contention until close home, going down just 2.5 lengths(3rd in a handicap here also earlier in career). That run puts him in with a great chance of losing his maiden tag and with Theodore Ladd taking over in the saddle claiming an extra 3lb off he should be able to land this especially with the trainer in red hot form over the last few weeks.

 

Saturday 4th January 2020 11.30am 🚀NAP is GIFT OF YOUTH 4.10 Kempton @ 11/2 Bet365, 5/1 elsewhere.

Result 4th

40,000gns Yearling but gelded whilst unraced last May followed by only a modest debut when 9th/11.

Showed more encouragement on second start when disputing the lead to the furlong pole (from a bad draw and unfancied at 50/1, winner now rated 91) before being snatched up and heavily eased.

Had another bad draw (8/9) on third start but ran his best yet when finishing 4th (same 91 rated winner), staying on nicely having raced widest of all early on.

Opening mark of just 65 looks fair and just creeps into this weak looking 0-65 handicap against some modest looking rivals and has drawn stall 1.

Interestingly connections decided to withdraw him from his intended sale after his last run.

Billy Button ran well when 5th on the turf two runs ago and can't be ruled out (has been backed from 20/1 into 7/1). However he may have to concede ground to the selection and Amanda Perrett's gelding can land the prize under Franny Norton.

 

 

Friday 3rd January 2020 11.15am 🚀NAP is SYMBOL OF LOVE 3.45 Wolverhampton @ 15/8 Bet365, Betvictor, Coral, Betfred.

Result 2nd (1.55 in running)

Shammardal filly who was well supported on debut last month at Chelmsford but went down in a three way photo to two fillies with previous racecourse experience. Solid effort however having raced wide early and on the outside of the eventual winner for the entire race. Clearly thought better of and with that run under her belt she can land this.

Trainers last six fillies having their second start on the all weather have finished 2-1-1-1-2-1 and she should add to that impressive statistic.

Thursday 2nd January 2020 11.00am 🚀NAP is IRISH ACCLAIM 1.15 Lingfield @ 13/8 PaddyPower/Betfair.

Result - 3rd

€105,000 yearling who ran well on debut in June when beaten 1.25 lengths with the winner going in again after and now rated 90.

Sent off odds on for second start but could only manage 4th. He was off for 4 months after that suggesting something may have been amiss or just needing more time.

Returned with a solid 2nd behind a well fancied Godolphin horse with 82 and 89 rated horses in 3rd and 4th.

Opening mark of 78 looks workable and trainer has a decent strike rate and a/e in all weather handicaps over the last two years, especially with younger horses. He also does well after a short break so the 44 day absence could actually work in his favour. 

 

Wednesday 1st January 2020 11.42am 🚀NAP is NEVER DO NOTHING 12.30 MUSSELBURGH @ 11/10 Bet365/Unibet

Won💣 SP 2/1

Progressive handicapper on the flat for Andrew Balding going from 83 to 91. Last seen running a stormer off 91 at Ascot and since sold for 135,000gns.

New Irish based trainer has an incredible record with horses sent across the sea with 34 winners from 156 runners 21.8 % S/R and that improves to a staggering 10/27 in non handicap hurdles (37% S/R).

Looks to have plenty to offer and providing the ground is not on the slower side of good to soft (only a 5% chance of light shower according to MetOffice so should be ok) he should have to many guns for these especially with both main market rivals carrying 6lb penalties.

FOLLOW US

OUR CHOSEN CHARITIES

NHS Charities

 

Young Minds Trust

 

CLIC Sargent

©2020 by My Little Tip

gamble aware (1).png