July 2019

Wednesday July 31 11.09am 🚀 NAP is LIGHT AND DARK 5.55 Goodwood @ 7/2 Bet365

Result - Unplaced

Three year old Shamaradal colt who hails from an in form yard who are on fire with lightly raced handicappers on the turf this year (33% Strike Rate, 15 winners from 45 runners).

Set some tough assignments on his first three Newmarket runs (beaten by horses, rated 108, 103, 98, 95, 92 & 87) he was given a handicap mark of 82.

Penned in on the rail on handicap debut he met traffic and then had to come out wide and squeeze through but obliterated the field once clear. 

Up 11lb for that but the most lightly raced in the whole field today and with the benefit of 7lb WFA from all but four of his rivals he can track round the bend and strike for home in the last 3 furlongs. Granted a clear run he will prove hard to beat and whilst this track is notorious for hard luck stories he is plenty generous enough at the morning odds to get the Nap vote.

Tuesday July 30 9.51am 🚀 NAP is MAJAALIS 4.00 Yarmouth @ 11/8 Skybet/Unibet, 5/4 WHills/PaddyPower/BetFred

Result - 2nd

€420,000 yearling but not sure the intention was to go handicapping at Yarmouth!

However nothing has gone this colts way in three starts and he looks set to go very well if nothing goes wrong again.

The form of his debut run has worked out very well. Winner Biometric won at Royal Ascot and is now rated 101, the 2nd also won at Ascot, now 89, the 3rd has had one run since, finishing second to a 92 rated horse and the 4th & 6th have also won since. Considering how tenderly he was ridden on that run it was a cracking effort.

On his second start he was sent off 6/4 Fav despite being upped to a mile and from a wide draw, testament to the strength of the debut run. He fluffed his lines at the start but still came there looking a massive runner 2f out (traded 2.3 in running) but blatantly didn't see out the trip, dropping back to 7th. He was then dropped to 6f on his third and last start.

He again dwelt at the start but still pulled clear well clear of the field with 82 rated Crantock Bay. He showed a blistering turn of foot when asked and his opening mark of just 83 looks very workable, especially with the 5lb extra allowance (WFA). 

The opposition have had 97 runs between them and are exposed whereas this 3 year old colt looks to have vast chunks of improvement in him and easily gets the Nap vote under Dane O'Neill.

Monday July 29 8.45am 🚀 NAP is LAND OF OZ 3.00 Ayr @ Evens Skybet & William Hills

Result - WON 💣

Had three easy runs to get handicap mark in 2018 and shaped as a thorough stayer on both 3 year old starts in handicaps this season, both over 1m6f.

Stepped up to 2m1f and give underfoot looks perfect and can land a double for connections.

He has been raised 6lb for his win LTO but in receipt of 15lb weight for age allowance and has just 8-7 off bottom weight.

Sir Mark Prescott is second to none with this type and Luke Morris can steer this Australia colt to victory this afternoon.

Sunday July 28 9.57am 🚀 NAP is KHAFOO SHEMEMI 3.55 Pontefract @ 2/1 Bet365

Result - 3rd

Won two Listed races in 2017 but winless in five attempts in 2018 (raced consistently in three Meydan handicaps off 107).

Change of scenery this year (Hannon to Stoute) and put up another credible effort when coming from off the pace and widest of all at Windsor but Matterhorn had already slipped the field. Ran with credit and that run alone puts him in with a solid chance, coupled with stall one for a yard that often improve for a run he is entitled to give them all a run for their money today.

Danny Tudhope takes the ride.

Saturday July 27 7.43am 🚀 NAP is ANNEXATION 8.30 Lingfield @ 11/8 Bet365

Result - 3rd

€240,000 breeze up purchase who was unraced at two so assuming something was amiss as he is not an overly big colt. Appeared on debut late May as a three year old, catching the eye staying on nicely. On second start he unseated rider and bolted before race but still ran very well, again looking like needing further than 6f. On his third start he was given a 'tender' ride when 4th/7 again over 6f and had clearly been set out to gain a fair mark.

Handicaper allotted him derisory mark of 64, which looked way below what he is capable of but a slow start and traffic problems left him with several lengths to make up on handicap debut on Monday. However he flew home once in the short straight, looking desperatly unlucky, making up vast amounts of ground and would surely have won easily had things not transpired against him.

Straight 7f should prevent him getting stuck again and the 20mm of overnight rain will be welcomed for this French bred colt too and should comfortably make amends tonight. 

Friday July 26 11.03am 🚀 NAP is TAILS I WIN 3.20 Thirsk @ 9/2 Bet365/Ladbrokes.

Result - 5th

USA bred Ex Irish filly campaigned over 7f and 1m last winter. Returned to track in spring but over 11,12 & 14f and has appeared to be a non stayer on every occasion. 

LTO ran on fast ground for the first time over 10f in Class 5 and quickened mid race to lead to 1f out but faded tamely last few hundred yards.

Same ground today and dropped back to 1 mile, finally getting the drop in trip she has been crying out for. This also coincides with her lowest ever handicap mark of just 56 and the drop into selling company (entered at Goffs sales next week). 

Owners will be very keen for a big run today with that in mind. 

Ben Curtis rides for Roger Fell who is operating on a very respectable 15% strike rate in handicaps this year, his highest since taking out a licence. 

Thursday July 25 11.31am 🚀 NAP is Atalantas Boy 5.45 Doncaster @11/4 Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair

Result  - WON 💣

Atalantas Boy is a typical David Menuisier horse, coming to hand slowly. 

He’s been very unlucky in 2 runs over 7f at Redcar and Doncaster and also looked unlucky when he was our 5/1 Forum selection, coming second at Goodwood but eventually having the race overturned in his favour in the stewards room. The form has been well franked with the ‘winner’ Spanish Star bolting up off a 4lb higher mark next time out.

Been off for 2 months with a pulled hamstring and he’s up 4 lbs but this looks a much easier race and he should go very well.

Wednesday July 24 11.15am 🚀 NAP is POETS DANCE 6.30 Sandown @ 7/4 Skybet/WilliamHill/BetVictor/PaddyPower/Coral/BetFred

Result - 2nd

Flaming Princess and Al Raya fought out a Nottingham maiden last month in a race that has worked out well. Both ran with credit in much tougher races since (FP was only beaten 3 lengths in the Group 2 Queen Mary when 7th/25 whilst AR was 5th in the same race and 4th in a Listed race since). The 4th won next time out (now 87) and the 6th also won NTO  (now 84)

However the eye catcher in that race was the third filly home who got left at the start but out ran her 50/1 SP with a superb effort, quickening away from the field easily with the first two home. She would have got a lot closer had she got away on terms and can improve a bundle with that superb effort under her belt for a trainer whose runners often improve greatly for a run. She could turn out to be very smart indeed.

Biggest concern is not whether she is good enough but stall 7 but in recent years that has been far from an inconvenience if this field size and she gets a strong NAP vote.

Tuesday July 23 8.31am 🚀 NAP is CHATHAM HOUSE 8.20 Chelmsford @ 11/4 Skybet. 

Result 3rd

Consistent gelding who ran a stormer behind Daarik on only all weather start. Bad draw at Chester last time but ran with credit, running on late to snatch third, looking a shade unlucky. 

Conceding weight all round but on balance of form has a great chance here and looks set to lose his maiden tag off a very fair mark of 78.

Ryan Moore rides for Richard Hannon.

Monday July 22 12.04pm 🚀 NAP is ANNEXATION 3.05 Ayr @ 11/4 BetFred

Result - 3rd

Expensive breezer from France who put in a scintillating run over the 2f at Deauville. 

Unraced at two so assuming something was amiss as he is not an overly big colt. Appeared on debut late May as a three year old, catching the eye staying on nicely. On second start he unseated rider and bolted before race but still ran very well, again looking like needing further than 6f. On his last start he was given a 'tender' ride when 4/7 again over 6f and has clearly been set out to gain a fair mark.

Handicaper has allotted him just 64, which looks way below what he is capable of, and looks a handicap snip especially now upped to 7f. A very strong fancy and a very easy Nap choice today.

Sunday July 21 10.27am 🚀 NAP is THUNDEROUS 2.20 Redcar @ Evens Skybet/WHills/PaddyPower/Betfair/888sport

Result - WON 💣

Highly regarded and impressive on debut when winning at Doncaster. Clearly has a fair cruising speed and quickened nicely when asked to go about his work. The second horse Dancinginthewoods had race fitness on his side, having won on his debut before bumping into a top class horse in Pinatubo (won Chesham at Royal Ascot next start).

Those two were 5.5 lengths clear of the field and today Thunderous will carry a 7lb penalty but it will take a way above average effort from one of the others to stop him following in his fathers footsteps and moving on to pattern races later in the summer. Holds a Derby entry but whilst that may be unrealistic he should have no trouble leading from pillar to post under Joe Fanning. 

Trainer Mark Johnstone is enjoying a stellar year with 157 winners already and a strike rate of 19.3%, his highest rate of any year yet.

Saturday July 20 11.32am 🚀 NAP is PISTOLETTO 4.00 Curragh @ 6/5 Ladbrokes/BetVictor/Coral

Result - 6th

Runaway winner on debut, thrashing the field by 5.5 lengths, beating an 88 rated filly into 2nd. 

Sent off a 1/5 Fav on second start but caused trouble at the stalls, kicking off off his two back shoes as well as suffering a bang on his hip and a cut on his mouth. Made to work hard for the win but clearly highly thought of juding by the interview with the trainer afterwards and much better than that in all likelihood.

Steps into Group company today but this looks well within his range and should go onto bigger things after today. Has entries for a few Group 1 & 2 races coming up (Pheonix G1, Gimcrack G2, Futurity G2, National Stakes G1 amongst others).

Ryan Moore rides for AP O'Brien

 

 

Friday July 19 11.00am 🚀 NAP is BYLINE 6.35 Hamilton @ 6/4 Betfair/PaddyPower

Result - WON 💣

A 140,000 gns Muhaarar colt who ran a blinder on debut after fluffing the start from a bad draw and giving an experienced Mark Johnstone colt the rail/big start but rattled home wide going down by under a length, running green in the process. The third horse has franked the form with a victory since (given an O/R 78).

Rain forecast but Muhaarar won the Ascot Champion Sprint Group 1 on good to soft whilst the dam also threw Bogart (two wins on good to soft) and Blaine (soft and good to soft ground wins) so any ease in the ground may not be of great concern that it might be to the others.

Looks set to run a big race under Tom Eaves and looks value at odds against.

Thursday July 18 8.25am 🚀  NAP is Trelinney 4.30 Chepstow  @ 7/2 Bet365, Skybet

Result - WON 💣

Trelinney has been threatening to go close recently off her mark and today could be the day she finally breaks her duck.

Her three recent 4th place finishes have been decent runs and at the weights today she can put in a huge run in a smaller field than she’s used to. 

She will be fine with the trip as she has come 4th over 1m2f at 16/1 at Goodwood back in June.

Martin Dwyer takes the ride. 

 

Wednesday July 17 8.07am 🚀  NAP is Tone The Barone 8.40 Yarmouth  @ 7/4 Skybet

Result - WON 💣 SP 2/1

Tone The Barone is fitted with a hood today for the first time and hopefully this will improve his performance. 

This Lope De Vega gelding looks off a fair mark and could have too much pace for these from a decent draw. 

He did fade away towards the end of his last race (over 6f at Newmarket) and therefore this drop back to 5f could be perfect. 

He’s a horse with ability and if he can replicate his early season form he should win. 

Jim Crowley takes the ride who has had 8 winners in the past 14 days.

 

 

Tuesday July 16 8.24am 🚀  NAP is Rochester House 2.45 Beverley  @ 11/8 Skybet

Result - WON 💣 (50p R4)

In his last run at Doncaster, Rochester House stayed on like a horse who wanted further and that is what he has got today. Upped in trip to 2m, he looks a typical Mark Johnston stayer and will be hard to beat today. 

He’s ran well over the shorter trips so far and theres no reason why the stiffer test shouldn’t squeeze out some more ability. 

Trainer Mark Johnston has had a staggering 25 winners in the past 14 days.

Joe Fanning takes the ride. 

Monday July 15 8.44am 🚀  NAP is Spargrove 5.40 Wolverhampton  @ 7/4 

Result - WON 💣

Spargrove should really have won last time out at Chelmsford, he traded 1.1 in the run-in and it seemed the jockey mistimed his ride. He's only 1lb higher here and that shouldn't be a problem. 

Despite defeat, his last run was encouraging and if he replicates that he should go close.

He's been placed in all three starts this season and really has been knocking at the door, today should be the day.

Dane ONeill takes the ride. 

Saturday July 13 10.47am 🚀  NAP is Baba Ghanouj 8.20 Salisbury  @ 6/4 Bet365

Result- 4th

Baba Ghanouj was unlucky last time out, bumping into a very impressive filly in Eve Johnson Houghton's Bella Vita. Bella Vita has won her last 4 races including a very impressive performance yesterday at Ascot.

Baba Ghanouj is only 1lb higher than its mark from that race and that looks very appealing.

She's unexposed and should improve.

Trainer Ed Walker is flying - he had an incredible 4 winners yesterday at prices of 6/1, 6/1, 11/4 and 9/4. 

David Probert takes the ride.

Sunday July 14 8.22am 🚀  NAP is Amor Verdadero 2.50 Sligo  @ 5/4 Bet365, Betvictor

Result - 7th

This ultra consistent mare finally got her head in front last time out at Bellewstown and looks a good bet to do so again today. 

Having finally won, she should go from strength to strength and she should oblige on her first handicap start today. 

It goes without saying Gordon Elliott is a very shrewd trainer and his partnership with jockey Davy Russell is impressive. 

She’s back down to 2m today which should be no problem as she finished a good second over this distance back in May at Kilbeggan only losing by a head.

Saturday 13 Juky - Baba Ghanout - 4th

Friday July 12 10.37am 🚀  NAP is Pesto 4.35 Ascot  @ 2/1 Ladbrokes, Betvictor, Paddy Power, Coral, Betfred.

Result - 6th

Pesto made a really encouraging reappearance after 307 off the track when dead heating with Wise Counsel at Sandown last time out.

He should come on a bundle after his first run in nearly a year.

He was unlucky not to win that race outright as he found trouble in running.

The extra furlong should help too.

This looks a nice opportunity for Richard Hannon's New Approach colt to win again. 

Sean Levey takes the ride.

Thursday 11 July 11.00am 🚀 NAP is Masar 3.35 Newmarket  @ 11/10 - Bet365, Skybet, Betvictor, William Hill.

Result - 6th

Last years Derby hero Masar put in a decent reappearance last time out in the Hardwicke Stakes coming 5th. He stumbled during the race which put to bed his chances of winning but it was still an encouraging blow out.

He should improve massively for the run and should reverse the form. 

He's a horse with massive ability and if he runs as well as he can he will win.

Trainer Charlie Applebly is in form and James Doyle takes the ride.

 

 

Wednesday 10 July 11.37am 🚀 NAP is Voltaic 5.10 Lingfield @ Evens - Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, William Hill.

Result - 2nd

In Voltaic's last race, some of you will remember that we NAPPED the 80 rated Alfred Boucher who won well. However, Voltaic gave him a good run for his money and put in a decent performance. A repeat should be enough to win this.

Trainer Paul Cole is in form recently with 3 winners from his last 4 turf runners at prices of 5/1 4/1 and 15/8.

Voltaic's main market rival may need to improve a bit to challenge him today. 

David Probert takes the ride.

 

Tuesday 9 July 11.06am 🚀 NAP is Governor of Punjab 6.10 Brighton @ 15/8 Skybet, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddy Power

Result - WON 💣 SP 9/4

 

A half brother to 6 winners, this Footstepsinthesand colt is improving & must have a great chance tonight. The form of his debut run at Thirsk is working out well, as is the form of his win at Chelmsford 3 weeks ago. The 2nd Miltown Star won next time at Salisbury so the form is solid. 
He made all at Chelmsford and battled on well after setting a steady early gallop.

He could be seen to even better light going a stride quicker today, so hopefully Franny Norton will bounce him out and set a decent gallop.

That being the case, he will be hard to beat !

Monday 8 July 11.54am 🚀 NAP is Wild Hope 4.00 Ayr @ 7/2 Bet365, Betvictor

Result - Won 💣

Half the 8 runner field are 3 year olds and we are with the Kevin Ryan trained WILD HOPE.

The Kingman gelding won easily by 4 lengths at Carlisle over 7 furlongs back in May and has had excuses the last two runs. 

He still looks well handicapped off a mark of 81 and is still relatively unexposed. 

He looked the winner last time out at Hamilton (traded 1.58) over an extended mile but just got outstayed up the hill in the last half furlong. 

This flat 1 mile should suit and hopefully he will get a nice tow into the race by front runner Calvados Spirit.

Kevin Stott takes the ride.

Sunday 7 July 10.55am 🚀 NAP is Jimmy Rabbitte 5.25 Market Rasen @ 11/8 Skybet/BetVictor/BetFred/PaddyPower

Result-2nd

Lightly raced six year old Dubai Destination gelding. Won on his sixth and final start for David Broad and given a handicap mark of 103 for his new trainer.

Rattled off a quick double (5/4 & 2/7) to land the hat-trick before the new mark of 103 kicked in. Respectable efforts next two runs finishing 4th and 3rd but this looks a lot weaker than those two.

The amateur rider booked is 11/88 and trainer Richard Newland is 62/253 in handicaps since 2018 with an incredible A/E of 1.24 and a 21% BFSP profit.

Compatriot and Native Fighter look to be the main dangers but both would need to up their game to finish in front of the well fancied selection.

 

Saturday 6 July 11.32am 🚀 NAP is Lady Mascara 8.40 Nottingham @ 10/3 PaddyPower/Betfair

Result - 2nd

Cacique filly who was a Book 1 yearling who failed to reach her 50,000 reserve and shrewdly left unraced as a two year old.

Caught the eye on debut and again on her second start when staying on quietly on both occasions. On her third start she was given an easier time of it, eased in from the back again under glass reins but staying on eyecatchingly  once again. The winner Nearooz is now rated 87 and the 2nd now 76 but she would have been very close at worst had that been over further and she had been ridden with more vigor. 

Her fourth start was surprisingly over 8f yet again and in a non handicap. Despite a big drift from 5/2 to 6/1 she came there looking the winner (traded 6/4 I/R) but done too much too soon and the field quickened past before she stayed on late yet again. 

She has been screaming out for a step up in trip and finally gets it on handicap debut off a very tasty looking mark of just 68 and is strongly fancied to show a massive leap in the right direction. 

George Wood rides for trainer James Fanshawe who is having a great year on a 17.6% strike rate. 

Friday 5 July 10.24 am 🚀 NAP is Joyful Mission 9.00 Haydock @ 5/4 Ladbrokes/WHills/BetFred/Coral

Result 3rd

Typical of a Sir Michael Stoute debutant to be eased into its race when seen on his only start in a hot Newmarket Maiden. 

Created a very favourable impression however having missed the kick and left in last place from a bad draw. Picked up nicely though late on and finished a very promising 4th looking like he needed further (as did his sire Noble Mission) so this extra furlong looks ideal (7f LTO, 8f today). The form has worked out well and he looks to have a very bright future in pattern company. 

Backing Stoute's  3 year olds on their second turf start over the last 5 years would see you in healthy profit to the tune of a monstrous 62.4% to SP and with that natural improvement he should comfortably fulfill his debut promise tonight. 

Virtalite (has a 7lb penalty), Dubai Future (debutants have been poor for a year now from this yard) and Laurier (will need to improve a bundle to beat our pick) all have a chance but it they will have to be well above standard to win tonight.

Richard Kingscote takes the ride. 

Thursday 4 July 11.04 am 🚀 NAP is Royal County Down 5.05 Tipperary @ 2/1 Bet365, Skybet, Betfair, Paddy Power

Result - 2nd

This is an interesting race with Aiden O'Brien and Jessica Harrington training the top two in the market. 

Favourite Cayenne Pepper looks a nice filly, who stayed on nicely last time out, however she did get the run of the race on her debut. Now she has a 4 lbs penalty which Royal County Down can take advantage of.

In contrast to Cayenne Pepper, on debut Gleneagles colt Royal County Down raced widest of all, mainly under a hands and heels ride. He stayed on well and the form has since worked out well. 

Winner Lil Grey went on to finish 6th in the Albany which is encouraging. 

Donnacha O'Brien takes the ride for his father Aiden in this one.

 

Wednesday 3 July 11.31 am 🚀 NAP is Harry Love 2.10 Thirsk @ 9/4 Bet365 & Betvictor

Result- WON 💣 SP 11/4

Harry Love ran a very impressive race on debut at Thirsk coming second at an SP of 18/1. 

The form of that race looks very good as the two horses behind him in 4th and 5th have both come out and won. Rich Belief who came 4th has subsequently won at Wolverhampton turning over odds on favourite Dark Kris, whilst the 5th placed horse Governor of Punjab has come out and won at Chelmsford.

He must be a fair animal because trainer Ollie Pears hasn't had a debutant winner in several years, so to run that well you'd think he is way above average. 

Pears may be on the cold trainers list but Harry Love's last run cannot be ignored especially as it was just three weeks ago. With that run under his belt and natural improvement he may be hard to beat from stall 13.

Tuesday 2 July 10.57 am 🚀 NAP is Mondrain 4.45 Hamilton @ 11/10 Bet365, William Hill,Betfair, Paddy Power

Result - WON 💣

This Mark Johnston Dubawi gelding is nicely bred being out of a Monsun mare who are renowned for their staying power and stamina. 

He had 5 runs before being gelded which seemed to do the trick as he won at Lingfield last time out off a mark of 70. 

All the other runners look exposed and Mondain wouldn't need to improve much to beat these. 

He's the only 3 year old in the race so gets a lovely 13lb weight for age allowance. 

He should get a nice run in behind the front runner Corton Lad which will set him up nicely. 

P J McDonald takes the ride. 

Monday 1 July 11.53 am 🚀 NAP is Takumi 7.15 Windsor @ 11/8 William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred.

Result - 2nd

Takumi is a horse in great form having won one and came 2nd twice in his last three races. 

He ran very well at Newmarket last time when racing widest of all and jinking out at a critical part of the race while the winner had the rail all the way up the straight. Also today as the only 3 year old in the race he gets a handy 10 lb weight for age allowance. 

Trainer Roger Varian is in splendid form and his record in 2019 turf handicaps is very good. 

23% have won whilst 60% have made the frame. He is operating at a 20% ROI to SP. 

Andrea Atzeni takes the ride.

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