Saturday 29 June 10.52 am 🚀 NAP is Alfred Boucher 8.15 Lingfield @ 13/8 Skybet
Result - WON 💣
Henry Candy's Alfred Boucher had 3 fair runs as a two year old over 6 furlongs, staying on well in all of them.
It appeared like he needed the run on his first run over 6 furlongs this season at Pontefract, but he stayed on well behind Rathbone.
Rathbone is now rated 94, and finished in front of Abate who has come out and won since then, so that looks decent form.
He was finally up to 7 furlongs for this last run at Kempton and didn't run badly but it was always going to be difficult from such a bad draw (12).
This race however should suit him as he has a decent draw and is again over the 7 furlongs that he wants.
Friday 28 June 09.48 am 🚀 NAP is Gabrial 7.30 Chester @ 11/10 Bet365, Betvictor
Result - 5th
The Dr Marwan Koukash owned Gabrial looks a decent bet to take this race at Koukash's beloved Chester.
He is an incredibly versatile performer and wouldn't have to be at his best to beat these.
He's been running well recently, and despite being 10 years old, he's putting in good performances in tough handicaps which proves his well-being.
At the adjusted weights he is 13 lbs well in with the second favourite and the set up of the race should work perfectly for him. The second favourite Call Out Loud is a front runner should lead from stall 4 with not much other pace in the race and we will be stalking him ready to pick him off in the straight from stall 1.
Tony Hamilton takes the ride.
Thursday 27 June 11.38 am 🚀 NAP is Mottrib 6.25 Leicester @ 11/10
Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill.
Result - 3rd - Saddle slipped start.
A 150,000 guineas Invincible Spirit colt, Mottrib certainly looks one to keep an eye on. He carried the second colours of the owner when beating the more fancied Baadir on debut very nicely.
Trainer Roger Varian is flying with 39 winners from 180 this turf season (operating at a 21.7% strike rate). Also, Varian is +£8.86 from £1 level stakes this season which is very encouraging.
Mottrib showed a great attitude on debut and David Egan should guide him to victory today.
Wednesday 26 June 9.18am 🚀 NAP is Raheeq 7.40 Bath @ Evens Bet365/Skybet/Ladbrokes/BetFred/BetVictor.
Result - WON 💣 SP 11/8 !!
Out of FSS Muhaarar by a smart Storm Cat mare (2nd in the Group1 Moyglare and a Listed winner).
Looks to have been very well placed today with only previous winner in the line up having a 3lb penalty.
Trainer Roger Varian has sent out three turf debutant winners from his last 5 runners and based on the work she is reportedly doing at home she should have no problem beating this field. No shortage of warm trade money this morning unsurprisingly and at the current price easily gets the Nap vote today under the safe hands of Jim Crowley in the saddle.
Tuesday 25 June 10.10 am 🚀 NAP is Crystal Tribe 4.00 Beverley @ 11/10 Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betfair, Betvictor
Result - Non Runner
Dansili colt who was very eye-catching last time out when winning on handicap debut, as an 11/4 favourite, on the all-weather at Lingfield.
Absolutely nothing went for him last time out and he still managed to win nicely.
He was slow away and last early before threading his way through in the last two furlongs and showing a nice turn of foot to get up close home.
It was reported that the horse lost two shoes which probably caused him to hang, which makes the win even more impressive.
He is a well bred and progressive type and the fact that plenty went wrong and he has only gone up 4 lbs is very appealing.
The blinkers were successful last time out and will be again today.
Royal Ascot hero Danny Tudhope takes the ride and he is flying with a 17% strike rate on the turf this year.
Monday 24 June 10.51am🚀 NAP is Sermon 6.30 Wolverhampton @ 7/4 Ladbrokes/Whills/BetFred/PaddyPower/Coral
Result - 2nd
Dark Angel colt who left a nice impression on debut when locking horns to the furlong pole with Dubai Station before running out of steam. His victor ran an absolute blinder in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot last week finishing a gallant 3rd, franking the form nicely.
Worth noting that Tom Dascombe's tend to show vast improvement on their second start normally so every chance he will improve a lot on that run. The switch to the Tapeta surface should not be a problem either as his full brother is a prolific scorer at Newcastle which has the same surface as Wolverhampton.
Dangers look to be Quiet Place who is still a maiden after 3 starts but looks a threat and Dazzling Des who has a wide berth and may need to show a little more to beat the Nap.
Sunday 23 June 11.05am🚀 NAP is DEREVO 3.25 Pontefract @ 6/5 Skybet/BetVictor/PaddyPower and others (5/4 Unibet).
Result - WON 💣
Dansili colt out of a smart filly who impressed on his sole two year old run when second over 7f at Doncaster.
Then sent off 8/13 over 10f on first start this season and duly obliged but then could only manage 4th on his last start despite starting odds on again. However that form has taken several boosts, the 3rd has since won (now rated 91), the 2nd also won NTO (now 88) and the winner ran ok in a Listed race NTO (92 now). He raced widest throughout that day and stayed on nicely enough with another admiral performance with the benefit of hindsight.
Derevo makes his handicap debut here off just 83 and as the only three year old in the race gets a very handy 12lb WFA allowance so is getting lumps of weight from his elders. Stall 2 is an added help with Victory Chime likely to front run and gives him something to track on the rail with stall 3 an habitual hold up horse.
Sir Michael Stoute had a steady start to the year but is operating on 25% strike rate (37/145) in 2019 and is actually up £8.29 to £1 level stake even at SP.
Saturday 22 June (8.16pm Friday) 🚀 NAP is SEMOUM 4.40 Newmarket @ 9/4 Ladbrokes/Skybet/WilliamHill/BetVictor
Result - 5th - Traded 1.44 in running
Bernardini colt who cost $400,000 and sent to George Peckham. Two fair efforts before winning at Ripon and then on handicap debut (83) at Ascot, both over 6f.
Highly tried on his 5th start in the Gimcrack (Group 2 York) and got hampered early on in Listed company in France.
He had a wind op soon after that run and had 7 months off the track before appearing for Roger Varian last month at Hamilton.
He ran well for his new trainer, staying on strongly over 5f in a conditions race, setting the fractions and putting the race to bed a furlong out, winning by two lengths.
Back into handicap company and now off 99 but this looks well within his compass and can maintain his 100% record for his capable trainer.
Friday 21 June 11.00am 🚀 NAP is JUST BENJAMIN 6.55 Goodwood @ 11/8 Bet365/BetVictor/Unibet
Unraced at two and gelded in February prior to a reasonable 7f debut when missing the break and getting outpaced before staying on late at Kempton.
Then ran green but well enough when second to the 1/2 Fav Dark Miracle (won again since) over 9.5f. Made it third time lucky when beating the 4/7 jolly Sashenka (won again since) at Brighton by 3 lengths on fast ground.
Given a handicap mark of just 79 and won very impressively when scooting clear when asked to quicken at Musselburgh (first handicap and slowest ground yet, good-soft) when again beating the Fav (Gravistas, who also went on to win next time out).
Due to go up to 84 tomorrow but still gets to race off a very lenient looking 82 this evening and everything looks in place for yet more improvement.
Liam Jones rides for William Haggas.
Thursday 20 June 11.04am 🚀 NAP is KIRSTENBOSCH 4.05 Chelmsford @ 7/4 Betfair/PaddyPower.
Result - WON 💣
Mount Nelson filly who was retained by 'owner' Luca Cumani after his retirement and she rewarded him when winning very impressively on debut for trainer James Fanshawe, pulling right away for a facile victory, looking like further would suit. The second horse is held in high regard which adds weight to the theory she may be something special in time. Also was surprising she ran so well given the trainers record with all weather debutants (just 3/101 before that).
Extra 2f today and main market rivals have all seemingly had chances already so despite her 6lb penalty she is easily the Nap selection today.
Daniel Muscutt rides for James Fanshawe.
Wednesday 19 June 11.14am 🚀 NAP is I CAN FLY 4.20 Ascot @ 4/1 Skybet/Bet365
Result - 3rd (Traded 1.17 in running)
240,000 gns Fastneck Rock filly who won on debut and was immediately upped to pattern racing after.
Ran in the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks (sent off single figured prices for both) before landing a Listed race and a Group 2.
Her best run however came when she nearly lowered the sail of Roaring Lion in the QE2 over course and distance on soft ground, going down in a photo finish (yesterdays winners Lord Glitters and Addeybb in behind as well as Laurens, Beat The Bank etc).
She never showed in the Breeders Cup Mile behind Expert Eye and was put away for the season.
After an easy 8 length win on her first start this season she was packed away to Dubai for the showcase at Meydan (sent off only 15/2) and was no match for the world beater Almon Eye. She ran ok in the Lockhinge and was then second in a Group 2 LTO and looks in fine form but this looks to be her cup final and a repeat of her only run at this track on this ground should do the trick.
Ryan Moore rides for A P O'Brien
Tuesday 18 June 10.10am 🚀 NAP is WHEN COMES HERE 6.20 Brighton @ 11/10 PaddyPower/Betfair.
Result - 2nd (Traded 1.32 in running)
Lawman colt who went about his work well on debut (sent off 10/1) when second at Salisbury to a well supported fav (who then ran in Listed race after, beaten just 3.25 lengths)
Then ran another decent race at York when showing lots of pace for 5f from the lowest draw (front three home all drawn nearer stands) before dropping back to 4th late on inside the last furlong. Left the impression a switch to a 'handy' runners track like today's would suit and this looks much weaker than either of his two previous starts (Class 2 and 4, Class 5 today).
None of those that have raced look up to this and the unraced colt from Hugo Palmer's yard is a big morning drifter and would be very disappointing if WCH doesn't lose his maiden tag tonight.
Monday 17 June 11.00am 🚀 NAP is HAWAAM 6.50 Nottingham @ 6/4 Bet365/Skybet and most others. Make sure you get B-O-G!
Result - 2nd (Traded 1.16 in running)
Gradually coming back to form this season and last run should have put him spot on for today. Last season his mark dropped from 82 to 76 before he won over course and distance on soft ground and interesting he is back down to 77 now on heavy ground tonight with Silvestre de Sousa booked.
It's also worth noting his only two runs on heavy ground were in Ireland in maidens when he finished 3rd on both occasions but the two in front of him are now rated 79/84 and 76/102. That leaves a distinct impression that the ground should be fine on his first try on it in this country for his current trainer.
Sunday 16 June 10.05am 🚀 NAP is CELTIC MANOR 4.30 Doncaster @ 7/4 Ladbrokes/PaddyPower/Coral
Result - WON 💣
€85,000 Foal who went back through the ring fetching 110,000gns as a yearling. Two good all weather runs over 6f and 5f before being packed away for the winter.
Sent to Windsor in a four runner race and stayed on well over the 5f trip on quick ground. Six furlongs today and completely different ground but he looked like that would suit and trainer has an exceptional record with turf handicap debutants and commands the utmost respect today.
Most the others seem to be running off their right marks or slightly too high whereas there is a fair chance this Dandy Man gelding has plenty more in the locker than we have seen so far.
Danny Tudhope rides for William Haggas
Saturday 15 June 11.43am 🚀 NAP is NETTE ROUSSE 5.00 Sandown @ 6/4 Skybet/Ladbrokes/BetFred/Coral and most others.
Result - WON 💣
Good run on debut when staying on nicely and that form has worked out well. Again ran well on her second start when third behind the same winner (Pondus) but ran as if today's ground would be more her bag.
Trainer on fire too, last 8 runners have finished 21211211, and with the 5lb fillies allowance it will take a very smart performance from one of her rivals to beat her today.
Well supported this morning but the 6/4 still underestimates her chances of making it third time lucky.
Silvestre de Sousa rides for Ralph Beckett.
Friday 14 June 1.05pm 🚀 NAP is CHARTERED 7.40 Goodwood @ 4/1 (5p Rule 4) PaddyPower/Betfred.
Result - WON 💣
Owner bred Frankel filly who has been gradually upped in trip (from 7f to 8f to 10f) having looked to be needing further on all three occasions. LTO on her first run of the season she broke ok but seemed to stumble and shuffled back before staying on very eye catchingly into fourth behind three promising types.
She now gets the trip she appears to need tonight (12f) which coincides with her handicap debut off a very fair mark of 78. She also gets a welcome 15lb WFA allowance off the top three (fav and second fav) and that could be enough to do the trick.
Trainer does exceptionally well in these filly races, the last three years he has sent out 30 winners from 123 runners (24.3%) and shows a profit even to SP.
Thursday 13 June NAP is MAYDANNY 2.10 Nottingham @ 11/10 Coral (ignore the 7/4 and 13/8 on Oddschecker, it's not there!!)
Result - 2nd
Dubawi colt who cost a staggering 1,350,000 guineas but was only sent off third fav on debut over 7f at Beverley a fortnight ago. Ran on well enough to think this step up to 8.5f will suit as does his pedigree.
Also the trainers turf debutants are on 15% S/R in 2019 while that doubles to 30% on second start giving the impression he is leaving a little bit in the locker with them, this season anyway.
His main market rival is a twice raced New Approach filly but they have a very poor record on heavy ground and would take a massive leap of faith to be taking 11/10 her.
Sadly the overnight jolly Frontman is a non runner or we would have 2/1 and considering this colt was entered in next months sales at Tattersalls by a very shrewd outfit I would have been happy to take him on as well but we will have to make do with the revised book as it still looks very fair value.
Wednesday 12 June 🚀 NAP is LORELINA 3.20 Haydock @ 7/4 Bet365/Ladbrokes/William Hill and others but make sure you get best odds guaranteed.
Result - 8th
Honest straight forward mare who simply loves underfoot conditions and with heavy ground at Haydock (C&D winner) today she looks set to go well.
All her best form is on poor ground whilst her worst from is on fast and looking at her sires record with cut it is no coincidence. He has strong figures soft/heavy (1.26 A/E combined) and with her trainer on a 17.5% S/R this season she gets the Nap vote.
The opposition all have one thing or another to worry about
but the market is never slow to react to 'mud larks' in the mud and whilst she has been supported already the 7/4 available still looks very fair and can maintain a 100% record on this ground.
Tuesday 11 June 🚀 NAP is MAKE MY DAY 4.15 Salisbury @ 6/4 Bet365/Ladbrokes and others.
Result - 4th
Beautifully bred Galileo colt who ran very well on debut showing a lot of promise. He was beaten 7 lengths into second but the winner had the benefit of a previous run and the odds on Fav Apparate was well held back in 5th (won NTO).
Should come on for that and looks set to go well, Robert Havlin takes the ride for John Gosden.
Main danger may be Inclyne, a nice Intello filly but she has had 5 starts already and remains a maiden.
Monday 10 June 🚀 NAP is HELIAC 7.55 Roscommon @ 13/8 Skybet/Ladbrokes/William Hill/BetFred.
Result - Non runner
Lightly raced three year old who typically from this farm and pedigree are steady coming to hand. She only raced twice as a two year old, staying on and impressing with her attitude each time. She was our Nap last time out when she won easily at Cork and again showed an admirable attitude to her work. She was grinding away in front, doing all the donkey work, looking very strong at the finish in her first attempt at this 10f trip.
Her opening mark looks very fair and her trainers impressive record with handicap debutants (1.44 A/E, 25.95% SP and 48.13 BFSP) adds weight to the theory there is plenty more in the locker. She looks to have been well placed here too, she gets 13lb weight for age allowance and the other fillies/mares look to be exposed and racing off their correct marks.
Also there is a sharp right hand turn not long after the stalls open at this 10f trip and she has drawn the plot pitch in stall 1. She may not be given as much rope as last time out but even so she is a worthy favourite who looks set to go very well yet again.
According to the met.ie website the rain should miss the track but a small amount of rain should be fine.
Sunday 9 June 🚀 NAP is DIABLO DE ROUHET 2.45 Perth @ 3/1 Skybet/BetVictor/BetFred/Coral but make sure you get B-O-G (best odds guaranteed)
Result - WON 💣 3/1 (10p Rule4)
Six year old gelding who started life of in P2P racing in Ireland before switching to Jo Hughes where he was sent off massive prices in two bumpers. Then raced in maiden hurdle before popping up at 33/1 over 2m3f at Chepstow. Two seconds followed and he looked to be going the right way and given a hurdle mark of 127. Highly tried at the Cheltenham Festival on his next start and left off until December but despite form figures on 3-2 was well beaten in both and left to go back P2P racing. Last of four on only start (prominent until weakened 3f out over 3 miles) but has joined a power house yard who have a phenomenal record of transforming horses that appear on the down grade.
Backing runners switched to Nicky Henderson's yard blindly would see you up 15.8% to SP and a whopping 30% to BFSP with an incredible A/E of 1.28 (77 winners from 289 switchers)
Indeed this calendar year alone he has had 8 intakes from other yards (5 have won) that have finished 1-1-1-2-1-1-5-2 for a profit of 84% to SP (a/e 2.16).
His mark today is 123 and considering the above he is not only well in on best form but potentially thrown in if his new trainer can work his magic and is well worth chancing at the morning odds despite the obvious risks attached.
Nico de Boinville takes the ride.
(Explaining some of the terminology above if you are new to betting. P2P is Point to Point racing, basically jumps racing but not under the same rules as national hunt. A bumper is a flat race but under national hunt (jump) rules and NOT flat rules. Switcher is a horse that changes from one yard to another. A/E is actual results compared to expected results based on the price of the horse is sent off to win a race and not just the basic data so gives a fairer reflection, 1.0 being what you would expect, so above 1.0 is good and the higher the better and vice versa. Sp is 'starting price' (the price a horse is as the race starts) and bfsp is the 'Betfair starting price'
Saturday 8 June 🚀 NAP is QUIRKY GERTIE 7.30 Chepstow @ 11/10 WHills/BetVictor
Result - 3rd (trades 1.17 in running)
Mick Channon has had a relatively slow start to the season but judged on his last few runners he is gradually starting to get things together now with two winners (5/1 and 10/3) and 3 seconds from his last 9.
He sends three fillies to Chepstow tonight and hopefully the ground will be bad as his last one of the three to run ran an incredibly good race at Lingfield on soft ground. She had a poor draw in stall three and was scrubbed along and looking in trouble over the downhill 6f but went into many notebooks when she picked up late on and finished a decent 5th. The front two home are decent fillies and they both raced on the favoured stands rail so she done very well to get as close as she did. This extra furlong should bring out a big improvement form that, her first start of the season, and there looks nothing of the same calibre in the race tonight.
She has been well found in the market and a non runner has shortened her price further but she still looks way overpriced and easily gets the Nap vote today.
Friday 7 June 🚀 NAP is MICRO MANAGE 6.35 Curragh @ 11/10 Bet365/Skybet
Result - WON 💣
Trainer Willie Mullins is better know for his jumpers but it might come as a shock that backing his flat horses is much more profitable!
Since 2015 he has had 66/315 winners (21%) and a profit to SP of 15% and 35.5% to BFSP. This colt has not run since October but that just strengthens the trainers statistics as he has had 13/56 (23%) win after a break for a whopping ROI to SP of 66%, BFSP 82%.
Also his sires are well known for needing a little give in the ground and a preference over longer trips so the hike up to 12 furlongs today should bring about even more improvement. Not that he needs to improve on his total destruction of the field when last seen, thrashing Aiden O'Brien's 6/4 Fav South Pacific. He pulled clear with ease looking a decent type in the process and has changed owners since on what must surely have been a decent profit on the €20,000 they paid for him as a yearling.
Donnacha O'Brien takes over in the saddle.
Thursday 6 June 🚀 NAP is PUERTO BANUS 2.30 Hamilton @ 7/4 SP 2/1 Bet365/Skybet.
65,000gns Bated Breath colt who faced an impossible task on debut against the highly touted Jubiloso. Hindered by a very slow start he moved nicely into contention before being outclassed by his very smart rival.
Andrew Balding is notoriously easy with his debutants so we can expect a vast improvement today with a cleaner break dropped in trip from 7f and with his main market rival a Camelot gelding dropping to 6f from 1 mile he may have the upper hand today.
Silvestre de Sousa takes the ride from stall 2 with the stalls position centre on the straight course.
Wednesday 5 June 🚀 NAP is DALAALAAT 1.00 Nottingham @ 7/4 Bet365/Skybet.
Kingman colt out of a classy mare (3rd 1,000 Guineas and 2nd Coronation Stakes Royal Ascot) but neither or his parents raced beyond a mile, so was surprising to see him race over 1m2f LTO on soft ground. He travelled very well upsides the winner to the 2f pole (who has won again since, now rated 98 and the second won NTO) before unsurprisingly fading in the last furlong.
Return to a mile and faster ground should see a repeat of impressive victory over course and distance when beating King Of Change (subsequent 2,000 Guineas runner up) last season on his second start.
Jim Crowley takes the ride for William Haggas who boasts a 22% S/R in summer handicaps.
Tuesday 4 June 🚀 NAP is JUMP THE GUN 7.50 Newcastle @ 11/4 Bet365/Skybet
Result - 5th
Jamie Osborne doesn't send out many debutant winners 32/657 (4.87% S/R) but this Make Believe colt ran an incredible race after completely fluffing the start. He looked in big trouble but showed soaring pace to get back into contention on fast ground at York before understandably tiring late on. He should come on a bundle for that and with the trainers strike rate increasing 2.5 times from debut coupled with a healthy A/E we can surely expect a lot more today.
The drop in trip should also suit judged by that run and its worth remembering his sire appreciated a little give underfoot so this slower surface (gd-firm LTO, tapeta today) might just help too.
Interestingly Ballyinch Stud (breeder and owners of the sire) still own the horse and he looks the one to be on the right side of today.
Monday 3 June 🚀 NAP is HIGHTIMEYOUWON 2.05 Gowran Park @ 7/4 Skybet
Result - 2nd
Expensive yearling purchase at 140,000gns but unraced as a 2 y/old. Never in contention on debut over 1 mile and missed two intended runs over 7f (reserve) before showing decent form over 6f on his second start in April when finishing 3rd/20. The form has worked out very well as winner Flash Gordon has since finished 3rd in a Group 3 and is now rated 98 while the 4th that day has since won and now rated 92.
On his most recent start at the Curragh he was drawn on the far side and was one of only five that stayed over on the slower ground. He duly thrashed the other four winning easily and lost nothing in defeat finishing 3rd/13 overall.
The trip would be the main concern as he has run so well twice over 6f and is by Garswood but it is interesting connections had those 7 & 8f entries earlier in the season and he has looked very strong inside the final furlong on both those starts.
Sunday 2 June 🚀 NAP is OI THE CLUBB OI'S 5.40 Nottingham @ 11/8 Bet365/PaddyPower
Result - WON 💣
Four modest runs to get his handicap mark and made no mistake off a generous looking opening mark on handicap debut (60) at this track, under this jockey and on fast ground.
Then sent hurdling and managed a close up 3rd in a Grade 2 race at Doncaster on good ground. Next he raced at Cheltenham for the Fred Winter but soft ground saw to his chance.
Last seen three weeks ago but again on soft ground, however showed his well being finishing 3rd/7 off 68. The return to his victorious track/ground/jockey should see him go very well for an in form Ian Williams (recent winners 10/1, 8/1 & 6/1 with places at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 16/1, 11/2 from last 18 runners) off 1lb lower (67).
Saturday 1 June 🚀 NAP is Bye Bye Hong Kong 3.10 Epsom @ 9/4 Skybet/Bet365
Result - 4th
It would be great for the family of the late Khun Vichai's family should the King Power horse Bangkok win the Derby, I don't think we will ever witness scenes again of so many thousands of people crying in what would be an extremely emotional day for them. I wish them well and my thoughts today will be with them and not my own personal bets.
I will be cheering the same colours on in the 3.10 anyway with the Nap being their Street Sense colt BYE BYE HONG KONG. He was a brilliant pinhook success for the very shrewd Jim Mccartan, who snapped him up after he failed to make $70,000 at the Keenland yearling sale. He made a mouth watering 575,000 Guineas at Newmarket the following spring.
At the track he has not been a disappointment either, winning easily at Windsor on only his second start on good ground. He then had the misfortune to bump into Too Darn Hot in a Group 2 before running second to Arctic Sound in a Group 3.
This season he has improved leaps and bounds though, admittedly in weaker races but the times he has recorded put him firmly in the shake up today. Wins at Chelmsford and Windsor should have put him spot on for today.
Only 6 go to post but 4 if them need to be held up and this could set the race up for him if Silvestre de Sousa can get him into a decent position by the turn.
I expect him to be be leading down the home straight and he can quicken clear to land his first Group race success.
Can I please ask everyone show respect for the owners today, win or lose there will be no boom today, just a lot of tears at MLT HQ. 🙏🏼