28 Bets 28.1833 returns - Totals 282, 353.3458 returns 25.3%

 

Saturday November 30th 11.01am 🚀 NAP is GIBRALTAR 4.50 Wolverhampton @ 11/8

Ladbrokes/PaddyPower/Betfred/Coral

Result 4th

Successful pinhook for Ballyphillip Stud when going from €80,000 foal into Book2 for 200,000gns as yearling.

Put in some running on second start when running well from stall 11 at Kempton shaping as if further may suit. Stayed on well again LTO when dropped to 7f and todays 9.5f trip looks ideal on those two runs.

An opening mark of 70 looks very fair and Michael Bell has a decent strike rate in nurseries even showing a 4.5% profit to SP (23% BFSP) from 462 runners. Also this colts sire Tamayuz offspring tend to show a preference for a slightly softer surface on both turf and a/w so the switch to Tapeta from Polytrack should be beneficial too. Significant market support this morning and he can reward his backers by landing the prize.

Friday November 29th 9.37am 🚀 NAP is KALASHNIKOV 1.50 Newbury @ 5/2 Bet365, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Coral

Result - 2nd (1.05 in running)

Kalashnikov would’ve come on plenty for his seasonal reappearance and should be raring to go at a track he loves. He won the Betfair Hurdle back here in February 2018. He’s a horse with a lot of quality and connections will be hoping this will be his last run in a handicap. He won a Grade 1 Novice Chase towards the end of last season beating the likes of La Bague Au Roi and Mengli Khan. 

Amy Murphy’s stable star can kick on this year, starting with a win here. 

Jack Quinlan takes the ride. 

Thursday November 28th 9.37am 🚀 NAP is GUSTAVIAN 3.40 Ffos Las @ 11/10 Skybet/Ladbrokes/WHills/Blacktype/Coral

Result - 2nd (1.19 in running)

Made an eye catching debut when 2nd/12 (unfancied in market 10/1) but let the winner get away 2f out despite travelling so well. They pulled clear of the field and this looks the best form on offer here.

Left the distinct impression today's track would suit him better and this Mahler gelding can land the prize under Rex Dingle.

Trainer Anthony Honeyball is 55/260 in bumpers (5/18 this year) and an impressive 30.9% profit to SP (A/E 1.28) whist Sam Thomas, trainer of the well supported second Fav is 1/55 in bumpers (0/13 this year) and 3rd in the betting Capricia's trainer is 0/18 in them this year, 17 of those unplaced (admittedly none of those have been under 6/1 but still this filly makes limited appeal).

One who is more worrying on paper is the unraced Shokolov gelding from the Evan Williams yard who was a £26k store (11.5k yearling) and he is 19/190 with bumper debutants so significant support would be interesting but he is drifting at time of print at 16/1

Wednesday 27th November - No Nap 

Tuesday November 26th 11.57am 🚀 NAP is INDUNO 2.20 Sedgefield @ 6/5

Bet365/BetVictor/WilliamHill/Coral/Unibet/Blacktype (5/4 with some smaller firms)

Result - 💣WON SP 11/8 

Didn't make his lofty €50,000 reserve at store sales but shows the faith connections had in this Flemensfirth gelding. 

Made fair debut this spring when sent off joint fav in Warwick bumper, finishing second (winner hacked up since) before being put away for the season. 

Returned to the track last month and heavily gambled on and won in good style under today's jockey.

Looks a fair prospect and should take some beating today if hurdling fluently.

 

Monday November 25th 12.05pm 🚀 NAP is MONTATHER 4.30 Chelmsford @ 11/10 Bet365/Ladbrokes/Skybet/Coral/888Sport

Result - 💣WON

Roger Varian’s unraced colt Montather is a son of Dubawi and there is plenty to like on paper. His dam Lanasaak was also trained by him and placed in the Rosemary Stakes in her short career.

Today's rivals Majestic Noor and Power of Time both produced okay debuts, both coming 5th but they don’t particularly look performances to be scared of while Lord Of The Sky looks one for next season but could rate the danger.

Varian's last two runners have both landed gambles when winning (Khaloosy and King Ragnar, with two others looking a shade unlucky) and the early morning support looks very significant

 

Saturday November 23rd 7.55am 🚀 NAP is ADJOURNED 11.55 Huntingdon @ 5/4 Betfair/PaddyPower

Result - Fell 

Flat bred who sold for €50,000 as a yearling but was first seen when landing a massive gamble last year in a Southwell bumper on good ground for James Bethell.

Purchased after that for €110,000 but missed his intended debut due to ground before coming 4th/15 in first run for 6 months for new yard.

Another 6 months off when last seen on soft ground 3 weeks ago with a tongue tie fitted and despite beating the Alan King trained 5/4 Fav he couldn't hold off the late challenge of Imperial Flem (12/1) finishing 2nd.

With ground today described as good to soft (only light rain forecast this morning) and that run under his belt he can start to repay connections faith in him by landing this maiden hurdle.

It's worth noting that in non handicap hurdles in the last 3 years Kim Bailey is 49/206 (23.8%) with an A/E of 1.47 and an ROI of 34% to BFSP when they have had a recent run which increases to 63.2% if you had only backed his 4 year olds.

Jockey Ned Curtis (3) rode Espoir De Romay (7/1) for the trainer two weeks ago.

Friday November 22nd 11.45am 🚀 NAP is JACK VALENTINE 2.15 Ffos Las @ 11/8 Ladbrokes/Coral/Blacktype

Result 3rd

Purchased as a store by Sam Curling and ran well on his sole start for him when one of three that was pulling clear of the field late on. He was trying to give the Willie Mullins trained winner Scaglietti 7lb on that bumper debut when going down by just 1.75 lengths in second. The winner has won twice since franking the form.

Switched trainers since and had one race for new connections when winning a bumper at Uttoxeter earlier this month beating a match fit Adicci, the pair pulling over 8 lengths clear of the 3rd.

His positive attitude when racing looks ideal for the switch to hurdles and with all the runners off level weights today he may be hard to peg back in the straight.

His new trainer Venetia Williams is having a fair start to the season in non handicap hurdles with only two runners starting under 8/1 so far and both winning (Penny Mallow 7/2 & Hold That Taught) and she shows a positive ROI to SP with all runners at this course.

Thursday November 21st Nap is PATHS OF GLORY 1.55 Newcastle @ 6/4 Bet365/Ladbrokes/Skybet and all main bookmakers.

Result 2nd (1.29 in running)

 Part of the Wildenstein dispersal at Goffs in 2016 and gelded in 2018 when unraced. Late to come to hand but that is typical for this pedigree and didn’t race until he was 4 in June of this year.

He has ran 7 races now, winning 4 and coming 2nd and 3rd in two others (3/4 wins on all weather). His only bad run was on heavy ground at Hamilton on the turf which definitely didn’t suit so that can be ignored.

Was off 84 when we napped him last (11 Oct) and is 96 now but he is still improving rapidly and the form of his last win has worked out well with El Misk hacking up since. His battling attitude should suit this C&D winner again and with market rival Deja seemingly a slightly keener racer than him he should be up to defying his now lofty mark at this stiff track.

Jack Mitchell rides Paths Of Glory and is 3/3 on him and hopefully will keep his 100% record.

Wednesday November 20th 11.50am 🚀 NAP is SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 4.40 Kempton @ 3/1 Bet365/Skybet/BetVictor/PaddyPower/BetFred (10/3 Unibet/888sport).

Three modest runs for a handicap mark of 55. Then showed some ability from bad draws in handicaps before running with great credit when wide and keen at Chelmsford last month finishing way better than finishing position of 9th would suggest. Made all from a wide draw when winning over C&D last time out and been penalised 9lb for it and mark now 59 from 50.

Was an emphatic win though showing marked improvement on his earlier form and a repeat of that win may be enough under the same jockey and a better draw. Has pace inside him today though so will need to break well but has plenty in the locker in terms of speed himself and can burn these off in the home straight.

Trainer having a disappointing season but signs of a revival with last few runners including 1st/10 (11/1), 3rd/12 (9/1), 4th/12 (28/1), 4/13 (16/1), 2nd/15 (10/1) and 2nd/14 (7/2).

Tuesday November 19th 10.55am 🚀 NAP is DUBAI FUTURE 1.20 Kempton @ 6/4 Bet365/Skybet/Blacktype

Result - WON 💣 @ 6/4

Result 9th

Dubawi colt who managed to beat the 4/6 Fav on debut Joyful Mission (92 after) but found Vitralite to hot to handle when staying on well for second. However the winner is now rated 98 and this colt was clearly doing his best work late on over an inadequate 8f trip that day.

Then won on second start when upped to 10f on fast ground at Windsor in July and been off since.

Trainer has a phenomenal record in these races with 3 year olds colts on the all weather with a 38% strike (36/95) rate and shows a profit even at SP. That S/R percentage goes up with those with two runs under their belt to a staggering 48% and form figures of 110151131213211 so assuming his well being he may prove a tough nut to crack.

Callum Shepherd takes the ride from stall 1.

Monday BLAKE'S VISION 4.45 Southwell @ 11/8 Bet365, 5/4 most other firms

Result - WON 💣 @ 7/4

Race restricted to horses costing less than £17k at auction but this €11,000 purchase made a very eye catching debut when completely fluffing the start (6f Wolverhampton) but showed pace to get back into contention racing very wide. The field the quickened away from him but he picked up again and was flying late on and looked a very unlucky loser. Extra furlong should help and gets 11lb from Come On My Son and whilst he concedes 7lb to Dancing Leopard she has already had 6 starts and failed to get her head in front.

Surface will be key (sire only had a few runners on it 2/14) but should beat these if handling it.

 

Sunday November 17th 9.00am 🚀 NAP is DUC DE BEAUCHENE 12.45 Cheltenham @ 10/3 BetVictor/Blacktype 3/1 Bet365/Ladbrokes

Result - WON 💣

Purchased from Arqana for €145,000 but took two years for this highly regarded Saddler Maker gelding to get his nose in front. However that entitled him on a low handicap mark of just 113 and won on handicap debut. Then ran a blinder when second (winner won again since) at Sandown in March but flopped in big field at Punchestown in first time tongue tie 6 months ago and had a wind operation a month after that.

Been aimed at this for some time now and trainer likes a tilt at this track.

Heavily gambled on today and the market move is very significant given the connections and he can bring home the loot with a clear round.

Saturday November 16th 10.25am 🚀 NAP is HIBERNIAN WARRIOR 12.25 Lingfield @ 2/1

Bet365/Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral/BetFred

Result 2nd 

Strong War Front colt who was an unsuccessful pinhook, costing $420,000 at the Keeneland yearling sales but failed to reach his reserve when led away unsold (145,000gns) at the breeze up sales in April.

Left off until his belated debut 50 days ago and made a complete mess of the start, flopping out the stalls and then taking a keen hold early. Travelled well from there on though and got his momentum going from the dip at Newmarket and ran on well considering (7f, 8f today), finishing 3rd behind New World Tapestry (AP O'Brien) who went on to run in the Group 1 Futurity. The 4th horse has won since and the 6th now has a mark of 81 and the way Hibernain Warrior disposed of them despite things not going his way suggests he could be a smart type in the future. 

Friday November 15th 10.05am 🚀 NAP is SIMPLY THE BETTS 2.50 Newcastle @ Evens Bet365/Skybet/Unibet/BetVictor/Unibet

Result - WON 💣 (No rule 4 with Sky but we will use 10p as we always take the highest. Always an honest service)

Harry Whittington is enjoying a great year with his handicap chasers with 9 winners from just 33 starters (27.3%) for a brilliant A/E of 1.64.  and an ROI to SP of 25.8%.

Simply The Betts made his chase debut last week off 125 and although his chance was made easier by a faller at the last he looked the easy winner in any case. He will go up an extra 3lb for that soon on top of the penalty so is technically well in here.

He is no slouch on the hurdles either, thought good enough to run in the Supreme  Novices at Cheltenham in 2018. 

The main worry is that all 4 of his wins have been when he is fresh but a repeat of last weeks win will be plenty enough here and at the prices is well worth the Nap vote.

 

Thursday November 14th 10.20am 🚀 NAP is VIVA VITTORIA 3.05 Taunton @ 3/1 Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair

Result 8th

Emma Lavelle’s Viva Vittoria, a €32,000 store purchase, has been a very consistent mare. In her 6 races to date she has only been out of the first two once. Lavelle tends to do well this time of year, she’s 8 from 21 in November handicap hurdles in the last 3 years, with an ROI of 132.3%. Also she’s had 3 decent winners recently (Highly Prized 9/2, Misty Bloom 9/2 and our Nap yesterday - Eclair Surf EVS). 

Viva Vittoria seemed to be tiring with two late mistakes last time out when running over 2m7f back in March. The drop is trip should suit today, down to 2m3f and the trainer can clearly get them ready.

Wednesday November 13th 10.25am 🚀 NAP is ECLAIR SURF 1.25 Exeter @ 5/4

Result - WON 💣

Ladbrokes/Skybet/PaddyPower/Coral/BetFred/Unibet

€44,000 store who was 3/8 on debut last year in a P2P. Then appeared in the spring at Bandon on heavy ground for a facile 30 length demolition job and was subsequently sold for £140,000 at the Cheltenham sales 11 days later.

Trainer having a great 2019 with these races and is 10/41 24.4% S/R with a ROI of 32% to SP.

Looks a worthy favourite and granted a clean round should land the prize under Adam Wedge who in terms of strike rate has had his best year yet (52/379 in 2019 which is 13.72%)

 

Tuesday November 12th 10.30am 🚀 NAP is SONG OF THE SKY 2.20 Lingfield @ 9/4 Betfair, Betvictor, Paddy Power

Result - WON 💣

Song Of The Sky has been knocking at the door coming third, second and second in her last 3 runs. She was second last month to a decent rival in Maire Banrigh who has subsequently gone on to beat the well regarded Thomas Darby but the ground today may be the key based on her previous form.

She started her career with John Joseph Murphy but won just 1 from 12 (54 flat) before switching to Joseph O'Brien for just 2,500gns. He soon got to the bottom of the mare, winning three times but all on bad ground. This is the worst ground she has encountered in her last 7 starts and she can get her first win for the Charlie Mann stable today.

 

 

Monday November 11th 9.30am 🚀 NAP is DEFINITELYANOSCAR 3.15 Kempton @ 7/4 WilliamHill/PaddyPower/BetVictor/Betfair

Result - 2nd

Ex pointer for Christopher Barber, winning on her third attempt at Barbury before moving to Harry Fry in February last year and wasted no time in securing two wins and two seconds from 5 hurdle starts (fell when disputing on other).

Won hurdle in August but but disqualified (rider Sean Bowen carried wrong weight) but found mixed sex Listed race too hot in September. 

Chase debut last month and ran with credit when second to Rebel Royal trying to concede weight and this Mares Handicap Chase looks winable raised just 2lb for that, now off 122.

The Kings Baby may be the danger but the 8 year old is off 119 now having won off 108 & 115 so the vote goes to Harry Fry's Oscar mare, sporting a first time tongue tie.

Sunday November 10th 10.30am 🚀 NAP is TOTTERDOWN 2.55 Sandown @ 11/10 Bet365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, William Hill

Result -  WON 💣

Totterdown won this race last year when running for Richard Phillips. He’s only off 1lb higher today and should be able to strike for his new stable. 

He’s recently switched to Fergal O’Brien who has been bang in form, operating at a 33% strike rate over the last 14 days. 

Jockey Paddy Brennan is also operating at a strike rate of 33% and is riding with great confidence. A front running ride again like last year could see him run his rivals into the ground.

 

 

Saturday November 9th 09.00am 🚀 NAP is DANSE IDOL 1.50 Wincanton @ 4/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral

Result - 7th

Paul Nicholls’ mare Danse Idol is incredibly consistent coming in the top 2 in 7 out of her 7 runs, winning 3 of them in the process. She won over course and distance last December, and when you consider her form, she could be well in off a mark of 129. She has placed in a grade 2 contest at Sandown and her recent wind op could also bring further improvement. Connections also have a good record in this race having won it last year. Trainer Paul Nicholls and jockey Harry Cobden are both operating at a 23% strike rate over the past two weeks, and normally have success at this meeting. 

 

 

Friday November 8th 11.30am 🚀 NAP is TARTLETTE 8.45 Dundalk @ 11/8 Betfair, Paddy Power

Result - WON 💣

Tartlette is an ex Hughie Morrison filly who has vastly improved from her switch to Shane Crawley’s yard and won here last month over course and distance. She’s up in the weights but a repeat of that performance should be enough to take the spoils here. 

Over the last two years, Shane Crawley has sent out 52 runners, and is operating at a +£30.41 profit to a £1 level stake and an ROI of 58.5%. 

Thursday November 7th 8.54am 🚀 NAP is THE BAY BIRCH 2.15 Market Rasen @ Evens Betfair/Unibet/PaddyPower/BetVictor and others

Result - 4th

Matt Sheppard has performed miracles with this mare since her move from Francis Flood in Ireland when rated just 87 and has gone from strength to strength.  She is between 9lb and 25lb well in on official adjusted ratings with her 3 main market rivals and showed her well being yet again with a 20/1 win at Chepstow last month making it 4 from her last 5.

Never raced at this track but providing that causes no problems this looks a great chance for her to land this Listed race and the £17k purse.

Stan Sheppard takes the ride and he has ridden her to victory 7 times already and hopefully 8 today!

Wednesday November 6th 11.05am 🚀 NAP is DEPOSE 5.40 Kempton @ 11/8 Bet365, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power

Result - 6th

Depose, a well-bred filly by Kingman should make the most of her racecourse experience her today. She stayed on well over 6f last time out, and should relish the step up in trip to 7f this evening. 

Hugo Palmer has a decent strike rate in this type of race with experienced horses. 

Jack Mitchell takes the ride and he is 31/170 in non handicaps, operating at a 18.2% strike rate, with 41% placing and an IV of 1.47.

Tuesday November 5th 10.45am 🚀 NAP is CAT TIGER 1.10 Exeter @ 5/4 Ladbrokes/Coral/Bet365

Result - WON 💣

Cat Tiger has fair French form, and with a run under his belt for Paul Nicholls he should come on a bundle. With the rest of the field having question marks over them, he looks the one to be on today. David Maxwell takes off a handy 3lbs. 

In 2019, trainer Paul Nicholls is 35 from 112 when horses have had a recent run, operating at a 31.2% strike rate and hopefully this can continue today.

 

Monday November 4th 11.34am 🚀 NAP is SIR EGBERT 3.40 Plumpton @ 5/4 Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfred/Unibet

Result -2nd

Lightly raced Kayf Tara gelding who took a while to find his feet. Put in some fair efforts last season with a win and two seconds from four chase starts. 

Mark crept up to 127 but switched back to hurdles and races here off 122 with Richard Johnson in the saddle. 

Trainer Tom Lacey operates on a fair strike rate and he can account for these having had a blow out last month when racing a tad keen.

Sunday November 3rd 11.40am 🚀 NAP is GENTILE BELLINI 2.35 Naas @ 5/2 Unibet/Bet365/888Sport

Result - 5th

Out of the multiple Group 1 winner Sky Lantern (won Sun Chariot, Coronation, 1,000 Guineas and Moyglare) by Dubawi and no surprise to see this colt make 2,000,000 GNS as a yearling in Book 1. 

Steady debut last year, normal for this yard before finishing 2nd to a now 100 rated colt Turnberry Island.

One run this year in April when gaining an easy lead (flip start) upped to 10f and left the impression there was plenty mpre to come. Gets a 3lb WFA allowance and looks set to start up a sequence given the lenient opening mark of 88.

Trainer 32/177 in handicaps since start of 2018 with a 21% ROI profit to SP and 65% to BFSP (A/E 1.19, IV 2.44)

Saturday November 2nd 11.00am 🚀 NAP is GOLD OPERA 1.40 Ayr @ 3/1 with every firm except WHills (11/4)

Result - 3rd

Triple course winner for previous trainer (all on slow ground) off 110, 115 & 125. Races off 126 today but Dalgleish on fire with 6 winners from last 19 at odds of 16/1, 7/1, 6/1, 5/2, 11/8 & 5/4 and two 2nds at 6/1 & 11/2. That brings trainers tally to 15 winners in a month.

Plenty of pace in the race for him to aim at too and with most the other runners with questions to answer (course/going) he easily gets the nap vote at the prices.

Danny McMenamin takes off a valuable 5lb also and he can get a nice tow around and strike late.

Friday November 1st 11.30am 🚀 NAP is RAASEL 1.05 Newmarket @ 6/4 Bet365

Result - 3rd

80,000 Book 2 Showcasing colt  who was impressive on debut on this ground at Bath two weeks ago especially as the trainer ended a long 43 runner debutant loser sequence (last one was spring 2017).

That adds strength to his performance on paper and the trainers last 8 runners on their second start have contained three winners (Impressor, Mohtarrif & Monaafasah) and two seconds (including 16/1 & 20/1 pokes).

Up a furlong today in a Class 3 Conditions Stakes but that looks ideal on his sole start and whilst he may lack the experience of his rivals he has more scope to improve and looks a horse to stay on the right side of.

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