• MLT

When points don't make prizes

Smoke and mirrors are used by magicians to fool people. They show you something and it looks real but behind the smoke and mirrors hides a sleight of hand that can convince people black is white.

Sadly it is also used by some tipsters in their numbers by showing you they win a lot when in reality they are hiding the true figures from their unsuspecting followers and below I will give you two examples of how they do it.

In the first example the tipster simply says "67% of tips win" which sounds fantastic. The bit the won't tell you is the most important number you need, the 'Return On Investment' (ROI). If the average price taken is 1/4 (1.25 in decimals) and you had 100 x £1 bets you would get back £83.75 from your £100 outlay despite having had 67 winners! The customer feels great having so many winners but he is losing money, deceived by sleight of hand.

Thankfully most punters are aware of this old style trick and is less common nowadays.

Sadly the second example below is prevalent even today and is used by the less genuine to get you to part with your money at the expense of more genuine tipsters.

If you saw an advert saying "We guarantee you will win 1,000 points" obviously something is amiss and it is. They refuse to mention the most important number you need, the actual 'Return On Investment' or 'ROI' as it is referred to. Here is how they deceive you and I will compare two 'tipsters' side by side, one genuine, one not so. I will call the genuine one tipster 'A' and the non genuine one tipster 'S'.

Tipster A stakes 300 points in a year and gets a return of 390, a 30% profit based on a fair sample size. Tipster S stakes 10,000 points in the year, gets a return of 10,500 points for only a 5% profit. However he will highlight the Tipster A profit as a small haul of just '90' points profit compared to his 'massive 500 points' in his attempt to get you to subscribe to his service. He will conceal the fact his 5% ROI is very poor compared to the 30% ROI (six times more) of the honest genuine 'Tipster A'and will never mention the actual ROI. It is obvious on this example Tipster A is better but its amazing how many people fall for it.

Taking it to the extreme you could have 1,000,000,000 points on a bet at 1/100 and win 10,000,000 points!! It is 1% profit on the bet, points won is meaningless.

Hopefully this will make people aware of it and will help some of you realise why some (not all) tipsters hide their ROI !!




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