8.40am Friday 31 May  🚀 NAP is Corazon Espinado 5.50 Epsom @ 11/2 Bet365 and most others but make sure you get B-O-G

Result  - WON SP 7/1 💣

Iffraj colt who boasts an impressive set of figures round this track, his only poor showing when not lasting 10f on dead ground. Take that out and his form reads 1-2-3-1-2 but his best performances were the two over 7f. He ran a blinder when second here in September (sent off 5/2 fav) off a mark of 87 (5lb higher than today) and won off 80 in August.

He races off 82 today and should strip fitter for his three runs this season, the first two from poor draws at Kempton (off 87 and 85) and LTO led over 1 mile at Windsor before dropping back to 4th/8 off 83. Also Simon Dows tend to need a few runs to get fit and this looks to have been his target for some time now. 

The only other course and distance runner in the race is the filly Hateya but in contrast her wins have been off 65, 72 and 82 and races off 94 today. Whilst she is obviously a danger she will have to improve a lot more to beat the selection. 

11.30am Thursday 30 🚀 NAP is SNEAKY 5.55 Sandown @ 2/1 Skybet/Ladbrokes/WHills

Charm Spirit is only a second season sire but already a trend has emerged that shows a liking for fast ground on the turf  (18.3% S/R 40.2% place and 1.13 A/E) and a very poor A/E on the all weather (0.7). This didn't stop an almighty plunge on her on debut on all weather at Kempton. She completely fluffed the start and then raced very keen and wide, eventually getting herself into contention a furlong out.

That was a brilliant run considering the ground she lost and today she is switched to turf and dropped to 5f. She has also bagged stall 1 for this evening. There is some disagreement as to whether or not this is the great draw it used to be but the facts are in small fields on fast ground stall one has won 23% of the races over the past few years with 43% being placed with an incredible I.V of 1.42 and I am always believe the stats and not lazy unfounded comments. 

She might face some competition from Cece Ceylon and Divine Covey, both unraced from decent yards, but they might need to be very special to beat the selection based on what we have seen now switched to what should be a more suitable surface from a good draw. 

11.00am Wednesday 29  🚀 NAP is LANDING ZONE 5.15 Gowran Park @ 4/1 BetFred/Totesport

Result 4th - Missed break

Sheila Lavery may not hold the fire power in her yard that the big guns do and she is definitely not one to rush her 2/3 year olds. She has never trained a winning 3 year old non handicapper on first or second start and has only had one winner on third start. However the numbers change drastically from then on in and she as a strike rate of  17% on 4/5th runs (7/41) with 40% making the frame. 

It is especially interesting when you look at the three runs of the selection this year who has been staying on well over 7f to 8f on each occasion. This step up to 9.5f and with those runs under his belt he looks set to give the favourite something to worry about if handling this quicker ground. His sire Elzaam has a 13.5% strike rate on good to firm and a strong 1.25 A/E so the data suggests he should be ok. 

11.05am Tuesday 28 May 🚀 NAP is TERMONATER 6.10 Southwell @ 7/2 Skybet. 

Result 3rd - Missed break

He won for us when tipped @ 18/1 in a Lucky 15 last month at this course when upped in trip to 6f. The reason I selected him that day was he clearly liked this surface (despite the form figures and many don't) but my slight concern that day was that he would want further. He took an age to get going but finished very strongly, winning easily in the end. After the race I added him to the tracker with the comment '1 mile Southwell'!! 

He has since run another stormer upped in trip again at Beverley over 7.5f, finishing with a flourish but again looking like a slower surface/8f is what he needs. 

He gets it today finally and although his mark  has gone from 57 to 65 he still looks exceptionally well handicapped and am very surprised he is the price he is.

His main dangers look to be Spirit Of Angel (winning nap LTO over 10f but looked like needing further not 2f less and only ever run on the much faster polytrack surface so ground a worry) whilst Monsieur Piquer and Ramatuelle may have to wait for another day. 

Monday 27 May  🚀 NAP is CAPE CAVALLI 3.30 Leicester @ 9/4 Bet365/Skybet. 

Result - 3rd

Only runner in the race to hold a Group entry (King Edward VII) and this 475,000 Gns Cape Cross yearling can land this en route.

Cracking debut second to Jalmound (won Listed race NTO) with Eightsome Reel (win NTO and then second to ultra impressive Raise You) in third.

He was sent off 10/11 LTO but found John Gosden's Kesia too hot to handle but again showing he is in great form and looks potentially decent. 

The other runners are Questionare (who has a penalty for his all weather win and wears a t/tie), Dubai Falcon (decent run on debut (soft) but priced accordingly), Oydis (nice filly but plenty on her plate against the 4 colts even with the 5lb off) and High Commissioner (who has already had a wind op).

Silvestre de Sousa rides for Simon Crisford. 

 

 

Sunday 26 May NAP is I'DLIKETHEOPTION 4.15 Fontwell @ 15/8 Skybet/WHills

 

Jonjo O'Neill has hit a rich vein of form with his last 6 runners finishing 1-1-2-1-2-2 (has an A/E of a whopping 1.29 in chases this time of year anyway) and he can land the race with this gelding on the ground he needs. His four handicap chase wins have all been on good or quicker ground and his mark has dropped  to 128. Those 4 wins were off 122, 122, 125 & 125 so although he is 3lb higher today his main market rival has struggled badly since his hike in the weights, getting beat 16 & 23 lengths off 133 (132 today).

 

I expect Adrrastos or Storm Home (only two wins both on soft ground) to lead with the selection tracking them and with a clean round should be able to pick them off. He has worn a tongue tie on four of his seven victories so that is of no concern and Adrian Heskin can steer the 8 year old to victory. 

Saturday 25 May NAP is FINNISTON FARM 5.45 Haydock @ 13/8 most firms but use one with B-O-G!

Result - 💣WON

65,000 book 2 yearling who won here on debut as a 2 year old. Highly tried after including Listed class but returned to this track for another win off 95 in September. Would have needed first run at Doncaster this season and one of many that hated the ground at Chester two weeks ago in the May festival on his latest start. 

Handicapper relented and goes off an all time low mark today of just 93 and gets the vote returned to his happy hunting ground! 

Richard Kingscote takes the ride for Tom Dascombe. 

Friday 24 May NAP is AUDIO 1.50 Goodwood @ 11/8 most firms.

Result - 4th

Class 4 stakes event confined to horses costing less than £25,000 and as a  €24,000 yearling purchase he only just qualifies for this Novice Auction race.

He ran ok on debut when 3rd to Electric Ladyland (who had race course experience winning her previous race) and was then 3rd again behind a subsequent winner (2nd Rose Of Kildare). It was his third start that left the best impression though when racing down the centre of the track at Chepstow and falling short late on to Flippa The Strippa who had the stands rail to help. She franked the form nicely last night with an easy win in Listed company at Sandown and the 4th horse (Lili Wen Fach) was 2nd at Chepstow to Bettys Hope.

The opposition today include Dream Shot (unraced and costing just 12,000), Copacabana Dancer (has plenty to find on the clock) and Flash Henry (whose trainer has only trained 2 turf debutant winners from 48 attempts). Spanish Angel might be a bigger threat but was last of 4 on debut and would need to find a whole chunk of improvement to trouble the selection. 

Audio is blinkered first time tonight and that can sharpen him up and he goes from a favoured stall one which should see him go well judged on yesterdays results. 

 

 

Thursday 23 May NAP is MATTERHORN 7.35 Sandown @ 13/8 Bet365/Skybet/Ladbrokes/WilliamHill/Coral

Result - 2nd

Outstanding performer who just keeps improving. Ten furlongs looks his trip as when decimating Group 3 winner Wissahickon at Lingfield last month. Second on his first attempt at  Group company at the Chester May festival but the ground was soft that day and today's ground should be more his bag. Looks set to run a massive race and very fairly priced.

Dangers include Regal Reality (only raced over 7 & 8f), Danceteria (big hike in class) and Elwazir (well beat in only Group race in August and off track since)

Wednesday 22 May NAP is HELIAC 8.35 Cork @ Evens William Hill/Skybet/Ladbrokes.

Result - 💣 WON

Two fair runs as a two year old, fourth on debut catching the eye late on over 7f. Then sent off 6/4 Fav over 1 mile LTO in October but again looked like needing further (had three of todays field in behind 20/1, 33/1 and 100/1).

Ger Lyons is 52/187 with 3rd run in non handicaps with a positive A/E of 1.2.

Out of Champs Elysees this filly looks like trip (10f) and ground will be ideal today and can make it third time lucky tonight under Colin Keane. 

Unraced Mouneera looks nicely bred but her trainer has poor 3.2% strike rate with 3y/o debutants and can be passed over on that evidence.

Tuesday 21 May  NAP is LADY MASCARA 3.15 Nottingham @ 7/2 Bet365/Ladbrokes/BetVictor

Result - 4th

48,000 Vendor Book 1 yearling by Cacique, related to Drochaid (O/R 93 before being purchased by Godolphin) and King Of Naples (O/R 90 for same connections).

Respectable debut from wide draw at Kempton, staying on well under a tender ride into 6th/12. Again drawn wide on her second start she was doing her best work late. On her third start she ran into Nearooz and New Jazz but gave them way too much rope before staying on strongly yet again. Surprised she is not in a handicap but for all intents and purpose this might as well be as only 2lb separates the best 7 rated.

George Wood takes the ride again today and hopefully she will be switched on early this time and get a clean run at them on the 4.5f run in. 

Monday 20 May NAP is PUZZLE 5.05 Redcar @ 5/2 (all firms).

Result - 4th

Pleasing debut over 6f when catching the eye late on staying on well to the line. Then bumped into Pass The Vino (now 85) and was readily outpaced but again ran as though needing further. Upped to 7f here (good-firm) LTO and clearly  improved for the step up in trip. 

Stepped up again to 1 mile today and that looks ideal based on what we have seen so far for this Paco Boy gelding. He looks set to give the morning gamble Risaala something to worry about on her turf debut.

Sunday's  19 May NAP is ISTIMRAAR 2.15 Market Rasen @ Evens every firm (except William Hills)

Result - WON 💣

Ex Godolphin cast off who ran to hurdle mark of 118 for Kirby, 120 for Skelton and 119 for Henderson. His 5th trainer (Dunn) however somehow managed to get his handicap mark down to 69 and no shock he has won twice (Nap last week, very easy winner off 82) returned to Dan Skelton's. Put in a poor round chasing when 2nd  at 2/7 since but reverts to hurdles today. Looks set for another win off just 89 with a clear round despite the 7lb penalty as he would have won that race with another stone on his back!

Saturday's 18 May NAP is RAISE YOU 2.05 Newmarket @ 5/4 with Bet365/BetVictor/BetFred/Coral/Boylesports.

Result - WON VERY EASY!!💣

 

Newmarket kicks off with a 1m 2f Listed race at 2.05pm and six colts go to post, all with a bright future ahead of them.

 

Al Hilalle was all the rage after being supplemented for the Guineas but was a bitter disappointment, Eightsome Reel looks a fair prospect but might just lack the class here while Stormwave and Target Zone have the most to find in terms of what they have achieved so far. That leaves Khuzam, who ran in two races on the all weather in the winter but despite holding Group one entries I’m not convinced he will be up to the form shown by RAISE YOU. He was extremely impressive on debut over 7f on soft ground when going down by a nose to King Ottokar (who won NTO, then ran in Group 1 and was then sent off Fav for the Derby trial at Chester won by Sir Dragonet).

Then on his only start this season Andrew Balding’s chesnut was visually breathtaking in April when decimating the field over 1m here at HQ. The form could not have worked out better with the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th all winning next time out.

Quick ground is obviously a concern (one run on soft and one on good-soft) but 5mm was applied to the course on Wednesday, 3mm on Thursday, 2mm on Friday and we had 1.5mm of rain in the early hours. The going has now been described good (gd-fm places with a 40% possibility of some more rain at 1pm according to the MetOffice.

 

QUOTE 

Andrew Balding, trainer: "He looked smart last time. The ground conditions here will be different so we need to see how he handles that, plus the extra two furlongs, but he is in good form and we think highly of him."

Wednesday 17 May NAP is GLASVEGAS 5.55 Hamilton @ 5/2 Bet365/BetFred, PaddyPower/BetVictor.

Result - 💣WON

Slow away on debut and looked like having an introductory debut which is normal for this yard. However got the hang of it after two furlongs and finished with a powerful rattle, just a few strides short from winning. Left the impression he would come on a bundle for that and trainers stats on second run on turf are impressive, 8/32 won in 2018 (18.5% won on second start and a positive ROI of 15.3% to SP last 5 years). Morning gamble on Taxiwala who looks the danger but he looks short in the market considering trainers do so well on debut anyway and will have his work cut out if the NAP improves for that debut run.

 

 

🚀Thursday 16 May 

NAP is ALTAR BOY 4.55 Salisbury @ 7/4 Bet365.

Result - Unplaced

Modest form in 6 all weather races but makes his belated turf debut tonight in a poor looking Claimer. Trainer Sylvester Kirk has hit form recently after a slow start to the year with 4 of his last 8 runners winning (14/1, 8/1, 6/1 and 4/6). He receives 11 lb off the Fav and there is only 1lb between them on the official adjusted weights. In contrast the Fav Jungle Inthebungle's trainer has not had a winner in his last 50 flat runners and the horse seems a shadow of his former self and looks one to take on. Beaten 20 & 34 lengths in his last two runs last year in Listed company he was soon gelded after but again disappointed in his last two handicap runs. This step up to 7f looks far from certain to suit whereas Altar Boy has been running over 7/8f and this trip looks perfect with an uphill finish should he take to grass. 

Wednesday 15 May

🚀NAP is GREAT BEAR 6.55 Bath @ 13/8 Skybet/Ladbrokes/WilliamHill.

💣Result - Won

Winner on debut at Wolverhampton in November, (sent off 7/2) and stayed on well over the 1 mile trip. Upped to 1m 4f for his first run this season but could only manage 4th on the good-soft ground. Much quicker ground tonight and this Dansili colt holds a Derby entry and can leave that run well behind in a much weaker looking race. Trainer does well here with 24/89 winners (27% S/R) in the past decade. 

 

 

 

Tuesday 14 May 

🚀NAP is ROYAL BEEKEEPER 2.10 Sedgefield @ 13/8 Skybet

Result - 6th

Champs Elysees gelding who was a one time flat horse for Lady Cecil and George Scott before going P2P for James Owen (won 2/6). Left for Dan Skelton's yard and won two before changing yards to go to Conor Dore (winless in 9 attempts) . Returns to Skelton off a lowly mark of 90 and the ground looks perfect for his return to the track from a 10 month absence. Harry Skelton rides and a big run expected.  

 

Monday 13 May

🚀 NAP is OWENACURRA LASS 6.40 Killarney @ 13/8 Skybet/PaddyPower/Betfair.

Result - Pulled up, broke blood vessel.

Six year old ex P2P mare who has been consistently staying on over 2 miles recently in maiden hurdles and bumpers having won at Wexford when again staying on strongly in October. Last seen on the flat at Tipperary over 1m4f but took an age to come out the stalls and stayed on from way back before being eased. First crack at 2m6f tonight and assuming she stays this race looks for the taking against some modest and exposed opposition.

Sunday 12 May

🚀NAP is ISTIMRAAR 4.05 Plumpton at 7/4 Ladbrokes and Skybet. 

Result - WON 💣

Ex Godolphin Dansili gelding who ran to hurdle mark of 118 for Kirby, 120 for Skelton and 119 for Henderson. His 5th trainer (Dunn) however somehow managed to get the mark down to 69 and no shock when winning on first race returned to Dan Skelton's yard in a handicap chase (previous two chase races for Dunn) after two years off. Reverts to hurdles today but mark of 82 still looks very low considering his history and this race should be well within his grasp. 

Saturday 11 May

🚀 NAP  is COME ON TEDDY 5.30 Warwick @ 7/4 All firms (except Bet365 13/8).

Result - 3rd

One fair run for Samuel Drinkwater on soft ground before switching to Tom George stable last November. Tailed off on stable debut on heavy ground (hurdling not great either that day) but showed a fair degree of promise LTO when hurdling much better, finishing 5.75L third to Umbrigado (who ran in Grade 1 hurdle at Aintree NTO) and Ask Dillon (ran in Ballymore Grade 1 hurdle and then won LTO, now rated 137). Appeared to be wanting to left handed in that run and given the trainers brilliant record with horses after a break (off 78 days) he can go very well with a clear round. Joint fav BBold has a chance but looks more exposed and now carries a 6lb penalty while Versatility will appreciate this step up in trip but will need to show significant improvement on hurdles debut. Arkyn gets 4lb WFA allowance but is another who will need to show a lot more than he has in four starts to date. 

Friday 10 May - Result 3rd

🚀 NAP  is Archippos 4.40 Chester @ 13/2 William Hill and BetVictor

Result - 3rd

Six year old gelding who has had an unsuccessful winter over hurdles but showed he still retains his ability when narrowly failing in a tight finish at Newcastle last week (blinkered first time) off a career low mark (75).  Also he was desperatly unlucky in this race in 2017 (off 8lb higher than todays mark) when getting a poor run but flying at the finish on ground that would have been too quick for him. Got his favoured ground today (four highest speed figures are on soft x2, heavy and good to soft) and granted a trouble free passage he looks to have a very solid chance. Apprentice race but jockey Phil Dennis best season was 2017 with only 27 winners but he is flying this year and already racked up 20 winners.

 

Thursday 9 May - Result - 2nd

🚀NAP is COPPER KNIGHT 1.50 Chester @ 7/4 PaddyPower.

Dual course and distance winner who caught the eye on seasonal return at Musselburgh last month. Handles this ground well and looks to have been trained with this race in mind and with the rail movement (moved in 4 yards today) exposing a fresh strip of ground stall 1 could prove to be a big advantage as is usually the case here. On a high enough mark though and no formality but a clean break from the stalls should see him go very close. 

8 May 2019 - Result - 3rd

11.21am 🚀 NAP is THE KINGS BABY 7.45 Fontwell @ 2/1 Bet365, Skybet, WHills. 

Ex Irish mare whose best runs seem to come with some give in the ground (good, gd-fm places but rain forecast before clearing later). Only had 3 chase races, falling when in lead, burst blood vessel when also leading and a 2nd. Chase mark of just 110 looks very fair on balance of form and will be fit enough on the back of a few hurdle spins. Gavin Sheehan rides for Harry Whittington who has saddled 10/1 and 4/1 winners from his last 4 starts and seems in much better form now than earlier in the year. 

 

7 May 2019 - Result - Won 11/10

10.53am 🚀 Tuesday's NAP is INESSA 4.15 Fakenham @ 11/10 Coral. Ex German flat horse who ran to fair level (Listed placed) and purchased for €28,000 by shrewd connections at Arqana 18 months ago. Had 5 runs for new yard and been a model of consistency (2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd and 1 x 3rd), all on good ground. Cheek pieces applied for the first time today around this sharp track and should find todays opposition easier than the Listed mares hurdle she came 3rd/16 in LTO at Cheltenham. Sam Twiston-Davies takes the ride. 

6 May 2019 - Result- WON Evens

10.10am - 🚀Monday's NAP is DYLAN DE VEGA 1.55 Beverley @ Evens with Skybet/BetVictor/PaddyPower.

Run a stormer on debut when trading short price in running and looking likely winner, just getting caught close home. Posted some speedy splits and pulled clear of the third that day so should be primed from stall 4 to go very well again in what looks a weaker heat. Today's 'raced' opposition either have worse draws and/or inferior form so whilst an unraced selection may prove to be a bigger danger the early market indicators (vary between 16/1 and 100/1) suggest otherwise, even more so when you read the race conditions (restricted on yearling median price at auction). Tony Hamilton takes the ride for Richard Fahey. 

5 May 2019 - Result - 2nd

🚀Sunday's NAP is SHAMBOLIC 4.45 Newmarket @ 10/3 Skybet/Betfred. 

Well related Shamardal filly who made a great start to 2 year old career with wins at Newmarket and Ascot before running in the Group 1 fillies mile. No match for Iredassa, Hermosa and Pretty Poly that day but no disgrace finishing a running on 4th off the favoured rail to those three top class fillies. Then fizzled out in Group 1 Criterium on final start in France but first run of the season today back at Newmarket and trainer John Gosden has won 4 of the last 5 of this race and knows what it takes to select the right filly. She should apprecitae this drop in class and looks set to go well. Frankie Dettori rides 

 

4 May 2019 - Result -2nd 

🚀Saturday's NAP is QUTOB 4.20 Goodwood @ 5/4 WilliamHill/Coral/Ladbrokes.

160,000 yearling who had three fair efforts as a two year old earning a handicap mark of 80. Sent back into a warm maiden at Newmarket on seasonal reappearance behind two heavily gambled on and very highly regarded rivals and gave them a run for their money to the furlong pole. This track should suit his style of running much more and this looks much weaker race than LTO. Trainer has had great start to May with 3 winners already (6/1, 4/1 & 13/8) from just 6 runners.

 

3 May 2019 - Result - 2nd (1.1 In running)

🚀Friday's NAP is MOSS GILL 7.30 Newcastle @ 13/8 Skybet/William Hill.

No Nay Never gelding who was a £30,00 vendor buy back as a yearling. No show on turf debut this time last year but that's normal for a James Bethell 2 year old debutant. Showed marked improvement when splitting a pair of heavily gambled on colts (winner cost 800,000 gns) over 6f at Wolverhampton in March. Showed plenty of speed that day and this drop to a straight 5f should see him go very well again. Fav is an unraced Showcasing filly who cost 210,000 but trainer likes to ease them in on debut normally (2/42 filly debutants recent seasons) and she would need to be fairly fit and above average in order to beat the selection. 

2 May 2019 - Result - Won 7/4

🚀NAP is SPIRIT OF ANGEL 8.55 Chelmsford @ 7/4 Skybet/Coral/Ladbrokes.

Handbrake firmly on first three starts (thought the stewards would have called them in on two of them!) and it worked, gaining a ridiculously low mark of just 60. However poetic justice was served when he bumped into two extremely well handicapped rivals on a day massively favouring front runners. He sat back in last and ran on well yet again. The form has worked out superbly (winner rated 75 that day and now 84, the second 70 that day, won next time out, now rated 80) and a retrospective 1lb rise for Marcus Tregoning's three year old gelding looks very lenient. This race looks a lot weaker and he should be able to nail these off 61. 

 

1 May 2019 - Result - 2nd (Won following day)

🚀NAP is TICKS THE BOXES 1.30 Southwell @ 2/1 Skybet.

Won on first run for Ellison (previous trainer 0/157 since 2018) so no surprise. This is much easier race than LTO and despite the 4lb penalty he looks set to run a massive race again in this 0-50 Classified Stakes race.

For results Prior to May 2019 please see Twitter, all posted there. 

FOLLOW US

OUR CHOSEN CHARITIES

NHS Charities

 

Young Minds Trust

 

CLIC Sargent

©2020 by My Little Tip

gamble aware (1).png