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  • Writer's pictureMLT

Spring in your step

As the flat turf season gets under way after 4 months of all weather racing its always good to remind oneself of ways to monetise early season races and there are several simple pointers to do this.

Researching variables in great depth looking for trends that flow like a tide is always a good place to start. But finding new angles that are underbet is never an easy task to undertake. Reduction in quality, field sizes, prize money are alarming for the industry but as analysts we should be looking at those trends in terms of what effect that has on finding value.

Smaller field sizes by its nature increases liquidity on individual horses on the betting exchanges whilst the actual turnover may decline. This can create a higher turnover for professional/part time gamblers at a trade off for a lower % ROI (return on investment). Also with the fixed odds bookmakers the extra place markets have seen them go from 1/4 to 1/5 for place terms and a reluctancy to offer a fair each way price for the selections likely to figure in the shake up. The 'win' market has never been so important to get right!

Those conclusions are not a knee jerk reaction to a 9 runner Spring Mile at Doncaster this weekend but the evolving race schedule and lack of depth in support from the powers that be.

So what does that mean to the actual selection process for people looking to make money out of horse race betting. Well believe it or not it actually makes it easier in terms of the variables as there is more wriggle room in that you can slack of certain criteria which may have been important as just a few years ago and will create more selections. Given the lower price brackets it will also be easier in exchange liquidity. However there is also a big catch. Discipline and bank roll will come under closer scrutiny on losing runs. Although they will be fewer than before the decline in ROI will make it harder to accept but in all honesty if you don't have discipline you should consider another avenue of employment/recreational activity!!

With regard to the actual areas to give a closer look (without giving the game away) smaller fields give bigger importance to pace angels and also on trainer profiling. Also the breeze up sales will always come across as a black art to many but given how they have changed over the past 15 years and now widely accepted by vendors and buyers it is extremely important to treat them as a vital tool in the tool box.

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