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Getting Drawn In

Updated: Mar 29

Without a doubt, the draw is a big factor at several flat tracks and is often underbet, even at the well known 'draw' tracks. Despite sophisticated computer modelling technology and betting exchanges run predominantly by 'bots', it is somewhat surprising that the variable hasn't been swallowed up by the mechanical process that has swept through the betting industry on virtually every variable going in the past decade or so.


The reason for this can be a variety of things, but a massive influence has to be the input of data and variables by human beings that themselves are not sure what information to feed their data hungry computers and how to determine what is important to the draw, and when the draw is important.


An example of this can be seen on any computer product purchased off the shelf. When you look at draw data and results alone, it is impossible to gain a comprehensive set of results that are meaningful for punters. Just saying Chester is a low draw bias is not enough on its own.


For example, look at Pontefract and Beverley, when the ground turns one way so does the draw, and again, when the field sizes increase so can the draw. You can't just say Pontefract 5f is low draw bias. 6 runners on good to firm over that trip will not have the same bias as 12 runners on soft ground. Wind direction, jockey course knowledge, etc., help produce massive biases and even bigger when running alongside each other, yet they are not captured, or captured incorrectly, by the larger media outlets and off the shelf modelling/data companies.


That is just one example of many and, thankfully, it looks to remain a healthy way for normal tech savvy punters to ensure decent ROI returns for some years to come from underbet variables like this. Other examples are horses runs, trainer runs in relation to peak performance, and sales data. None of these are rocket science, but they certainly are not exposed compared to some horrendous overbet variables, like jockey form and, indeed, recent form figures of the horse itself. Admittedly, it takes years of experience to learn, capture, and transfer the knowledge into decent 'food' for your computer to eat, but there is plenty of life left in the old dog yet.


Don't get drawn into having a bet because a horse has 'a good draw', it means nothing on its own and, as a single standalone variable, it is likely to be a loss leader.





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